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Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing

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Author Info
Kent D. Daniel
Abstract

This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firms' prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are linearly related to both risk and mispricing measures (e.g., fundamental/price ratios). With many securities, mispricing of idiosyncratic value components diminishes but systematic mispricing does not. The theory offers untested empirical implications about volume, volatility, fundamental/price ratios, and mean returns, and is consistent with several empirical findings. These include the ability of fundamental/price ratios and market value to forecast returns, and the domination of beta by these variables in some studies. Copyright The American Finance Association 2001.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 56 (2001)
Issue (Month): 3 (06)
Pages: 921-965
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:56:y:2001:i:3:p:921-965

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  1. Palomino, Frédéric & Sadrieh, Abdolkarim, 2004. "Overconfidence and Delegated Portfolio Management," CEPR Discussion Papers 4231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. B. Luppi, 2005. "Prospect Theory and the Law of Small Numbers in the Evaluation of Asset Prices," Working Papers 539, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pierpaolo Benigno & Anastasios Karantounias, 2006. "Overconfidence, Subjective Perception and Pricing Behavior," NBER Working Papers 11922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan, 2008. "Overconfidence?," MPRA Paper 8879, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Benoît, Jean-Pierre & Dubra, Juan & Moore, Don, 2009. "Does the Better-Than-Average Effect Show That People Are Overconfident?: An Experiment," MPRA Paper 13168, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  6. G. William Schwert, 2002. "Anomalies and Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 9277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2005. "Investor Psychology and Tests of Factor Pricing Models," Working Paper Series 2005-26, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009. "Examining Feedback, Momentum and Overreaction in National Equity Markets," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2009n18, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
  9. Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy, 2005. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," MPRA Paper 6497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Bertram Düring, 2008. "Asset Pricing Under Information with Stochastic Volatility," CoFE Discussion Paper 08-04, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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