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Confidence and the business cycle

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  • Sylvain Leduc

Abstract

The idea that business cycle fluctuations may stem partly from changes in consumer and business confidence is controversial. One way to test the idea is to use professional economic forecasts to measure confidence at specific points in time and correlate the results with future economic activity. Such an analysis suggests that changes in expectations regarding future economic performance are important drivers of economic fluctuations. Moreover, periods of heightened optimism are followed by a tightening of monetary policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal FRBSF Economic Letter.

Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): nov22 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2010:i:nov22:n:2010-35

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Keywords: Consumer behavior ; Business cycles;

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  1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
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