Confidence and the business cycle
AbstractThe idea that business cycle fluctuations may stem partly from changes in consumer and business confidence is controversial. One way to test the idea is to use professional economic forecasts to measure confidence at specific points in time and correlate the results with future economic activity. Such an analysis suggests that changes in expectations regarding future economic performance are important drivers of economic fluctuations. Moreover, periods of heightened optimism are followed by a tightening of monetary policy.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal FRBSF Economic Letter.
Volume (Year): (2010)
Issue (Month): nov22 ()
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- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006.
"Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association,
American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
- Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2003. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2003. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," IDEI Working Papers, Institut d'Ã‰conomie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse 158, Institut d'Ã‰conomie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 10548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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