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Patent-Based News Shocks

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Abstract

We exploit firm-level data on patent grants and subsequent reactions of stocks to identify technological news shocks. Changes in stock market valuations due to announcements of individual patent grants represent expected future increases in the technology level, which we refer to as patent-based news shocks. Our patentbased news shocks resemble diffusion news, in that they do not affect total factor productivity in the short run but induce a strong permanent effect after five years. These shocks produce positive comovement between consumption, output, investment, and hours. Unlike the existing empirical evidence, patent-based news shocks generate a positive response in inflation and the federal funds rate, in line with a standard New Keynesian model. Patenting activity in electronic and electrical equipment industries, within the manufacturing sector, and computer programming and data processing services, within the services sector, play crucial roles in driving our results.

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  • Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Marija Vukotić, 2020. "Patent-Based News Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1277, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1277
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2020.1277
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    Cited by:

    1. Görtz, Christoph & Gunn, Christopher & Lubik, Thomas A., 2022. "Is there news in inventories?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 87-104.
    2. Görtz, Christoph & Yeromonahos, Mallory, 2022. "Asymmetries in risk premia, macroeconomic uncertainty and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2021. "Real exchange rate and international spillover effects of US technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Nils M. Gornemann & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Felipe Saffie, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Endogenous Productivity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1301, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem & Bluwstein, Kristina, 2020. "Patents, News, and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 15062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    News Shocks; Patents; Patent-based news shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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