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Productivity Growth, Consumer Confidence and the Business Cycle

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Author Info
Danthine, Jean-Pierre
Donaldson, John B
Johnsen, Thore

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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to provide, in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model, an answer to the following five questions: 1) To what extent does an economy subject to regular variations in labour productivity growth differ from one where labour productivity is constant? 2) What is the impact on major macroeconomic indicators of a one-time change in labour productivity growth? 3) What are the business cycle implications of autonomous (non-falsifiable) changes in growth expectations? 4) What is the potential of such expectation changes for explaining the volatility of consumption to output ratio? 5) Can autonomous changes in growth expectations help us understand recent business cycle episodes?

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1779.

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Date of creation: Jan 1998
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1779

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Related research
Keywords: Business Cycle; Consumption; Labour Productivity;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

Cited by:
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  1. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2006. "Behavioural Theories of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5909, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Orlando Gomes, 2007. "Imperfect Demand Expectations and Endogenous Business Cycles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 127, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  4. Luis Opazo, 2006. "The Backus-Smith Puzzle: The Role of Expectations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 395, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  5. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2008. "The Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/05, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Den Haan, Wouter & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2007. "Anticipated Growth and Business Cycles in Matching Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6063, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "News Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 12898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mertens, Karel, 2007. "The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops," Working Papers 07-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Guido Lorenzoni, 2006. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," NBER Working Papers 12477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Francesco Giuli & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2009. "Firm-Specific Capital, Productivity Shocks and Investment Dynamics," Working Papers 120, Sapienza University of Rome, Department of Public Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Chen, Kaiji & Song, Zheng, 2007. "Financial Friction, Capital Reallocation and Expectation-Driven Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 3889, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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