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Productivity Growth, Consumer Confidence and the Business Cycle

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  • Danthine, Jean-Pierre
  • Donaldson, John B
  • Johnsen, Thore

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to provide, in the context of a dynamic general equilibrium model, an answer to the following five questions: 1) To what extent does an economy subject to regular variations in labour productivity growth differ from one where labour productivity is constant? 2) What is the impact on major macroeconomic indicators of a one-time change in labour productivity growth? 3) What are the business cycle implications of autonomous (non-falsifiable) changes in growth expectations? 4) What is the potential of such expectation changes for explaining the volatility of consumption to output ratio? 5) Can autonomous changes in growth expectations help us understand recent business cycle episodes?

Suggested Citation

  • Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Donaldson, John B & Johnsen, Thore, 1998. "Productivity Growth, Consumer Confidence and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 1779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1779
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    Cited by:

    1. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2018. "Anticipated versus unanticipated terms of trade shocks and the J-curve phenomenon," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Pengfei Wang, 2012. "Understanding Expectation‐Driven Fluctuations: A Labor‐Market Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 487-506, March.
    3. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
    4. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Imperfect Demand Expectations and Endogenous Business Cycles," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 11(1), pages 37-59, May.
    5. Santanu Roy & Itzhak Zilcha, 2012. "Stochastic growth with short-run prediction of shocks," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 51(3), pages 539-580, November.
    6. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-181, May.
    7. Guido Lorenzoni, 2009. "A Theory of Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2050-2084, December.
    8. Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1998. "À la poursuite du Graal : le successeur d’IS-LM est-il identifié?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 74(4), pages 607-620, décembre.
    9. Ravn, Morten & Mertens, Karel, 2008. "The Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 6673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2007. "Behavioral Theories of the Business Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 361-368, 04-05.
    11. Jermann, Urban J. & Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2007. "Stock market boom and the productivity gains of the 1990s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 413-432, March.
    12. Chen, Kaiji & Song, Zheng, 2013. "Financial frictions on capital allocation: A transmission mechanism of TFP fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 683-703.
    13. Karel Mertens & Morten Overgaard Ravn, 2011. "Understanding the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated Tax Policy Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 27-54, January.
    14. Eric R. Young & Ponpoje Porapakkarm, 2008. "Information Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," 2008 Meeting Papers 67, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2009. "Anticipated growth and business cycles in matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 309-327, April.
    16. Butler, Monika, 1999. "Anticipation effects of looming public-pension reforms," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 119-159, June.
    17. Zheng Song & Kaiji Chen, 2007. "Capital Reallocation, Productivity, and Expectation-Driven Business Cycles," 2007 Meeting Papers 512, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Saif Mehkari & Bill Dupor, 2010. "Solving the Procyclical News Shock Problem," 2010 Meeting Papers 400, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Mertens, Karel, 2007. "The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops," Working Papers 07-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    20. Giuli, Francesco & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2012. "Real rigidities, productivity improvements and investment dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 100-118.
    21. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2018. "Price puzzle in a small open New Keynesian model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 29-42.
    22. Luis Opazo, 2006. "The Backus-Smith Puzzle: The Role of Expectations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 395, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Francesco Giuli & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2009. "Firm-Specific Capital, Productivity Shocks and Investment Dynamics," Working Papers in Public Economics 120, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    24. Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "News Shocks and Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 12898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Chen, Kaiji & Song, Zheng, 2007. "Financial Friction, Capital Reallocation and Expectation-Driven Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 3889, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycle; Consumption; Labour Productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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