Real Business Cycle Realizations
AbstractMuch recent business cycle research focuses on moments of macroeconomic aggregates. We construct examples of real business cycle sample paths for output, consumption, and employment for the U.S. economy. Annual sample paths are generated from an initial condition in 1925, measured technology and government spending shocks since then, and a standard, calibrated, one-sector model of the business cycle. Quarterly sample paths are generated similarly, from an initial condition in 1955. The law of motion for shocks is not parametrized and so decision-rules are estimated by GMM. We compare the paths with actual history graphically and by spectral methods.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Queen's University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1253.
Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Aug 1997
Date of revision:
Publication status: forthcoming in Carnegie Rochester Conference Papers on Public Policy
real business cycles; Solow residuals; US business cycle history;
Other versions of this item:
- Smith, Gregor W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1997. "Real business-cycle realizations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 243-280, December.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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