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Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity

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  • Manzano, Carolina
  • Vives, Xavier

Abstract

We study a general static noisy rational expectations model where investors have private information about asset payoffs, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for existence and uniqueness (or multiplicity) of equilibria. We find that a main driver of the characterization of equilibria is whether the actions of investors are strategic substitutes or complements. This latter property in turn is driven by the strength of a private learning channel from prices, arising from the multidimensional sources of asymmetric information, in relation to the usual public learning channel. When the private learning channel is strong (weak) in relation to the public we have strong (weak) strategic complementarity in actions and potentially multiple (unique) equilibria. The results enable a precise characterization of whether information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes or complements. We find that the strategic substitutability in information acquisition result obtained in Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is robust. JEL Classification: D82, D83, G14 Keywords: Rational expectations equilibrium, asymmetric information, risk exposure, hedging, supply information, information acquisition.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2072/151544.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/151544

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Web page: http://www.urv.cat
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Keywords: Expectatives racionals (Teoria econòmica); Equilibri (Economia); Cobertura del risc; Mercat eficient; 336 - Finances. Banca. Moneda. Borsa;

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  1. Medrano, Luis Angel & Vives, Xavier, 2002. "Regulating Insider Trading when Investment Matters," CEPR Discussion Papers 3292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Federico Echenique., 2000. "Comparative Statics by Adaptive Dynamics and The Correspondence Principle," Economics Working Papers E00-273, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Blume, L. E. & Bray, M. M. & Easley, D., 1982. "Introduction to the stability of rational expectations equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 313-317, April.
  4. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
  5. Laura Veldkamp, 2003. "Media Frenzies in Markets for Financial Information," Working Papers 03-20, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  6. Vives, X., 1990. "How Fast Do Rational Agents Learn?," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 135-90, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  7. Laura Veldkamp, 2004. "Information Markets and the Comovement of Asset Prices," Working Papers 04-18, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  8. He, Hua & Wang, Jiang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 919-72.
  9. Vives, Xavier, 1990. "Nash equilibrium with strategic complementarities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 305-321.
  10. Gadi Barlevy & Pietro Veronesi, . "Information Acquisition in Financial Markets," CRSP working papers 360, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  11. Goldstein, Itay & Ozdenoren, Emre & Yuan, Kathy, 2010. "Learning and Complementarities: Implications for Speculative Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7651, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  13. Manuel Amador & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2008. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 14255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Jayant Vivek Ganguli & Liyan Yang, 2009. "Complementarities, Multiplicity, and Supply Information," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 90-115, 03.
  15. Itay Goldstein & Emre Ozdenoren & Kathy Yuan, 2011. "Learning and Complementarities in Speculative Attacks," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(1), pages 263-292.
  16. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1981. "Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 221-235, September.
  17. Laura Veldkamp & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," Working Papers 06-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  18. Chamley, Christophe, 2007. "Complementarities in information acquisition with short-term trades," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(4), December.
  19. R. Guesnerie, 2002. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 439-480, March.
  20. McCafferty, Stephen & Driskill, Robert, 1980. "Problems of Existence and Uniqueness in Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1313-17, July.
  21. Danthine, Jean-Pierre & Moresi, Serge, 1993. "Volatility, information and noise trading," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 961-982, June.
  22. Xavier Vives, 1994. "Short-term Investment and the Informational Efficiency of the Market," CEPR Financial Markets Paper 0034, European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.
  23. Duffie Darrell & Rahi Rohit, 1995. "Financial Market Innovation and Security Design: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 1-42, February.
  24. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:30:y:2010:i:1:p:383-391 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. " Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information before Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1665-98, December.
  26. Gadi Barlevy & Pietro Veronesi, 2007. "Information acquisition in financial markets: a correction," Working Paper Series WP-07-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  27. Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-57, May.
  28. Christophe Chamley, 2008. "On "Acquisition of Information in Financial Markets"," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(4), pages 1081-1084.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Grégoire, Philippe & Huang, Hui, 2012. "Information disclosure with leakages," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 2005-2010.
  2. May Elsayyad & Kai A. Konrad, 2011. "Fighting Multiple Tax Havens," Working Papers fighting_multiple_tax_hav, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
  3. Michael Funke & Yu-Fu Chen, 2010. "Global warming and extreme events: Rethinking the timing and intensity of environment policy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21007b, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  4. Giovanni Cespa & Xavier Vives, 2009. "Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," CESifo Working Paper Series 2839, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Biais, Bruno & Foucault, Thierry & Moinas, Sophie, 2013. "Equilibrium Fast Trading," Les Cahiers de Recherche 968, HEC Paris.
  6. Jess Benhabib & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2013. "Uncertainty and sentiment-driven equilibria," Working Papers 2013-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Kovalenkov, Alex & Vives, Xavier, 2008. "Competitive Rational Expectations Equilibria Without Apology," CEPR Discussion Papers 7025, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Krusell, Per & Schneider, Martin, 2014. "Asset Trading and Valuation with Uncertain Exposure," Working Paper 14-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  9. Larson, Nathan, 2011. "Clustering on the same news sources in an asset market," MPRA Paper 32823, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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