Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge
AbstractThe paper examines within a unified methodology expectational coordination in a series of economic models. The methodology views rational expectations equilibria as reasonable predictors whenever they can be derived from more basic Common Knowledge hypothesis. The paper successively considers a simple non noisy N-dimensional model, standard models with "intrinsic" uncertainty, reference intertemporal models with infinite horizon. It reviews existing results and suggests new ones. It translates the formal results into looser but economically intuitive statements, whose robutness, in the present state of knowledge, is tentatively ascertained.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure) in its series DELTA Working Papers with number 1999-06.
Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Econometrica, especilla, 2002, pp. 1-20.
ECONOMIC MODELS ; PREDICTION ; EXPECTATIONS;
Other versions of this item:
- R. Guesnerie, 2002. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 439-480, March.
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
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