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Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge

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Author Info
Guesnerie, R.

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Abstract

The paper examines within a unified methodology expectational coordination in a series of economic models. The methodology views rational expectations equilibria as reasonable predictors whenever they can be derived from more basic Common Knowledge hypothesis. The paper successively considers a simple non noisy N-dimensional model, standard models with "intrinsic" uncertainty, reference intertemporal models with infinite horizon. It reviews existing results and suggests new ones. It translates the formal results into looser but economically intuitive statements, whose robutness, in the present state of knowledge, is tentatively ascertained.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure) in its series DELTA Working Papers with number 1999-06.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 1999
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Publication status: Published in Econometrica, especilla, 2002, pp. 1-20.
Handle: RePEc:del:abcdef:1999-06

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Related research
Keywords: ECONOMIC MODELS PREDICTION EXPECTATIONS

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Atsushi Kajii & Stephen Morris, 1997. "The Robustness of Equilibria to Incomplete Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(6), pages 1283-1310, November.
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  2. Milgrom, Paul & Shannon, Chris, 1994. "Monotone Comparative Statics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 157-80, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bryant, John, 1984. "An example of a dominance approach to rational expectations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 249-255. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Carlsson, Hans & van Damme, Eric, 1993. "Global Games and Equilibrium Selection," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(5), pages 989-1018, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Balasko, Yves, 1994. "The expectational stability of Walrasian equilibria," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 179-203, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Geanakoplos, John, 1992. "Common Knowledge," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 53-82, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Borgers, Tilman, 1992. "Iterated Elimination of Dominated Strategies in a Bertrand-Edgeworth Model," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 59(1), pages 163-76, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. DeCanio, Stephen J, 1979. "Rational Expectations and Learning from Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 47-57, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Townsend, Robert M, 1978. "Market Anticipations, Rational Expectations, and Bayesian Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(2), pages 481-94, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Vives, Xavier, 1993. "How Fast Do Rational Agents Learn?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(2), pages 329-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Evans George W. & Guesnerie Roger, 1993. "Rationalizability, Strong Rationality, and Expectational Stability," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 632-646, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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