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Ambiguity, information acquisition and price swings in asset markets

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  • Antonio Mele
  • Francesco Sangiorgi

Abstract

This paper studies asset markets in which ambiguity averse investors face Knightian uncertainty about expected payos. The same investors, however, might wish to resolve their uncertainty, although not risk, by just purchasing information. In these markets, uninformed and, hence, ambiguity averse, agents may coexist with informed agents, as a result of a rational information acquisition process. Moreover, there are complementaries in information acquisition, multiplicity of equilibria, history-dependent prices, and large price swings occurring after small changes in the uncertainty surrounding the asset expected payos. Our model suggests the importance of uncertainty, as a new channel for episodes of extreme price volatility, media frenzies and media glooms.

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File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/24424/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library in its series LSE Research Online Documents on Economics with number 24424.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 04 May 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:24424

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  1. Kenneth A. Froot & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 1990. "Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," NBER Working Papers 3250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Laura Veldkamp, 2003. "Media Frenzies in Markets for Financial Information," Working Papers 03-20, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Ambiguity, Information Quality and Asset Pricing," RCER Working Papers 507, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
  5. Sujoy Mukerji & Peter Klibanoff, 2002. "A Smooth Model of Decision,Making Under Ambiguity," Economics Series Working Papers 113, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Gadi Barlevy & Pietro Veronesi, . "Information Acquisition in Financial Markets," CRSP working papers 484, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  7. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2008. "Collective Risk Management in a Flight to Quality Episode," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2195-2230, October.
  8. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  9. Han Ozsoylev & Jan Werner, 2011. "Liquidity and asset prices in rational expectations equilibrium with ambiguous information," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 469-491, October.
  10. H. Henry Cao & Tan Wang & Harold H. Zhang, 2005. "Model Uncertainty, Limited Market Participation, and Asset Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1219-1251.
  11. Pascal J. Maenhout, 2004. "Robust Portfolio Rules and Asset Pricing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(4), pages 951-983.
  12. Epstein Larry G. & Wang Tan, 1995. "Uncertainty, Risk-Neutral Measures and Security Price Booms and Crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 40-82, October.
  13. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Ambiguity and Asset Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
  2. Martin Schneider, 2010. "The Research Agenda: Martin Schneider on Multiple Priors Preferences and Financial Markets," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), April.
  3. Han Ozsoylev & Jan Werner, 2011. "Liquidity and asset prices in rational expectations equilibrium with ambiguous information," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 469-491, October.
  4. Liyan Yang & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "Information Diversity and Market Efficiency Spirals," 2012 Meeting Papers 349, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Scott Condie & Jayant Ganguli, 2011. "Informational efficiency with ambiguous information," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 229-242, October.
  6. Jayant Ganguli & Scott Condie, 2012. "The pricing effects of ambiguous private information," Economics Discussion Papers 720, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  7. Jayant Ganguli & Scott Condie & Philipp Karl Illeditsch, 2012. "Information Inertia," Economics Discussion Papers 719, University of Essex, Department of Economics.

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