Dynamic market participation and endogenous information aggregation
AbstractThis paper studies information aggregation in financial markets with recurrent investor exit and entry. I consider a dynamic general equilibrium model of asset trading with private information and collateral constraints. Investors differ in their aversion to Knightian uncertainty: When uncertainty is high, some investors exit the market. Since exiting investors' information is not fully revealed by prices, conditional return volatility and risk premia both increase. I use data on institutional investors' holdings of individual stocks to show that investor exits indeed move negatively with price in-formativeness. The model also implies that exit is more likely when wealth is more concentrated in the hands of less uncertainty-averse investors. The model thus predicts less informative prices toward the end of a long boom, as seen in the data. Moreover, economies with looser collateral constraints should see more volatility due to exit and partial revelation. Higher capital requirements can improve welfare by inducing more information revelation by prices.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 13-42.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-12-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-CTA-2013-12-06 (Contract Theory & Applications)
- NEP-DGE-2013-12-06 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Allen, Beth E, 1981. "Generic Existence of Completely Revealing Equilibria for Economies with Uncertainty when Prices Convey Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(5), pages 1173-99, September.
- Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010.
"Ambiguity and Asset Markets,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics,
Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
- Hua He and David M. Modest., 1992.
"Market Frictions and Consumption-Based Asset Pricing,"
Research Program in Finance Working Papers
RPF-223, University of California at Berkeley.
- He, Hua & Modest, David M, 1995. "Market Frictions and Consumption-Based Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 94-117, February.
- John R. Nofsinger & Richard W. Sias, 1999. "Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2263-2295, December.
- Peter Bossaerts & Paolo Ghirardato & Serena Guarnaschelli & William R. Zame, 2006.
"Ambiguity in Asset Markets: Theory and Experiment,"
Carlo Alberto Notebooks
27, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2009.
- Reis, Ricardo, 2006.
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1761-1800, November.
- Ricardo Reis, 2004. "Inattentive Consumers," NBER Working Papers 10883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ricardo Reis, 2004. "Inattentive Consumers," Working Papers 135, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics..
- Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "Inattentive Consumers," CEPR Discussion Papers 5053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- YiLi Chien & Harold Cole & Hanno Lustig, 2012.
"Is the Volatility of the Market Price of Risk Due to Intermittent Portfolio Rebalancing?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2859-96, October.
- Yi-Li Chien & Harold L. Cole & Hanno Lustig, 2009. "Is the Volatility of the Market Price of Risk due to Intermittent Portfolio Re-balancing?," NBER Working Papers 15382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Judson A. Caskey, 2009. "Information in Equity Markets with Ambiguity-Averse Investors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3595-3627, September.
- Admati, Anat R, 1985. "A Noisy Rational Expectations Equilibrium for Multi-asset Securities Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(3), pages 629-57, May.
- Cai, Fang & Zheng, Lu, 2004. "Institutional trading and stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 178-189, September.
- Alberto Naudon & MatÃas Tapia, 2004.
"Ignorance, Fixed Costs, and the Stock Market Participation Puzzle,"
Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings
252, Econometric Society.
- Alberto Naudon & MatÃas Tapia & Felipe Zurita, 2004. "Ignorance, Fixed Costs, and the Stock-Market Participation Puzzle," Documentos de Trabajo 262, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
- Nuno Fernandes & Miguel A. Ferreira, 2009. "Insider Trading Laws and Stock Price Informativeness," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1845-1887, May.
- Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, 04.
- Rubin, Amir & Smith, Daniel R., 2009. "Institutional ownership, volatility and dividends," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 627-639, April.
- Andrew J. Morton & Stanley R. Pliska, 1995. "Optimal Portfolio Management With Fixed Transaction Costs," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 337-356.
- Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
- George M. Constantinides, 1979. "Multiperiod Consumption and Investment Behavior with Convex Transactions Costs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(11), pages 1127-1137, November.
- Duffie, Darrell & Sun, Tong-sheng, 1990. "Transactions costs and portfolio choice in a discrete-continuous-time setting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-51, February.
- Yexiao Xu & Burton G. Malkiel, 2003. "Investigating the Behavior of Idiosyncratic Volatility," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 613-644, October.
- Samuelson, Paul A, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 239-46, August.
- Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Information and Competitive Price Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 246-53, May.
- Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2008.
"Ambiguity, Information Quality, and Asset Pricing,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 197-228, 02.
- Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2005. "Ambiguity, Information Quality and Asset Pricing," RCER Working Papers 519, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2004. "Ambiguity, Information Quality and Asset Pricing," RCER Working Papers 507, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1981. "Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 221-235, September.
- Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
- Beth Allen & James S. Jordan, 1998. "The existence of rational expectations equilibrium: a retrospective," Staff Report 252, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Han Ozsoylev & Jan Werner, 2011. "Liquidity and asset prices in rational expectations equilibrium with ambiguous information," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 469-491, October.
- Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942.
- Dow, James & Werlang, Sergio Ribeiro da Costa, 1992. "Uncertainty Aversion, Risk Aversion, and the Optimal Choice of Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 197-204, January.
- Harris, Thomas R. & Shonkwiler, John Scott & Lin, Yuanfang, 2001. "Application Of Discrete Normal Distribution For Dynamic Rural Retail Sector Analysis: Preliminary Results," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20456, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
- Radner, Roy, 1979. "Rational Expectations Equilibrium: Generic Existence and the Information Revealed by Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 655-78, May.
- Richard W. Sias & Laura T. Starks, 2006. "Changes in Institutional Ownership and Stock Returns: Assessment and Methodology," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 2869-2910, November.
- Vayanos, Dimitri, 1998. "Transaction Costs and Asset Prices: A Dynamic Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 1-58.
- Tallon, Jean-Marc, 1998. "Asymmetric Information, Nonadditive Expected Utility, and the Information Revealed by Prices: An Example," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 329-42, May.
- Ekkehart Boehmer & Juan (Julie) Wu, 2013. "Short Selling and the Price Discovery Process," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 287-322.
- Luttmer, Erzo G J, 1996. "Asset Pricing in Economies with Frictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1439-67, November.
- Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
- Patrick J. Dennis & Deon Strickland, 2002. "Who Blinks in Volatile Markets, Individuals or Institutions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1923-1949, October.
- Gerard Gennotte & Alan Jung, 1994. "Investment Strategies under Transaction Costs: The Finite Horizon Case," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(3), pages 385-404, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Beth Paul).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.