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Ambiguity in Asset Markets: Theory and Experiment

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  • Peter Bossaerts
  • Paolo Ghirardato
  • Serena Guarnaschelli
  • William R. Zame

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion on equilibrium asset prices and portfolio holdings in competitive financial markets. It argues that attitudes toward ambiguity are heterogeneous across the population, just as attitudes toward risk are heterogeneous across the population, but that heterogeneity of attitudes toward ambiguity has different implications than heterogeneity of attitudes toward risk. In pa rticular, when some state probabilities are not known, agents who are sufficiently ambiguity averse find open sets of prices for which they refuse to hold an ambiguous portfolio. This suggests a different cross section of portfolio choices, a wider range of state price/probability ratios, and different rankings of state price/probability ratios than would be predicted if state probabilities were known. Experiments confirm all of these suggestions. Our findings contradict the claim that investors who have cognitive biases do not affect prices because they are inframarginal: ambiguity-averse investors have an indirect effect on prices because they change the per capita amount of risk that is to be shared among the marginal investors. Our experimental data also suggest a positive correlation between risk aversion and ambiguity aversion that might explain the "value effect" in historical data. The Author 2010 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 23 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 1325-1359

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Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:23:y:2010:i:4:p:1325-1359

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References

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  1. Larry G. Epstein & JianJun Miao, 2001. "A Two-Person Dynamic Equilibrium under Ambiguity," RCER Working Papers 478, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
  3. Raman Uppal & Tan Wang, 2003. "Model Misspecification and Underdiversification," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2465-2486, December.
  4. Gneezy, U. & Kapteyn, A. & Potters, J.J.M., 2002. "Evaluation Periods and Asset Prices in a Market Experiment," Discussion Paper 2002-8, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Bossaerts, Peter & Plott, Charles, 2000. "Basic Principles Of Asset Pricing Theory: Evidence From Large-Scale Experimental Financial Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2578, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Peter Bossaerts & Charles Plott & William R. Zame, 2006. "Prices and Portfolio Choices in Financial Markets: Theory and Experiment," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001322, UCLA Department of Economics.
  7. Marco Cagetti & Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams, 2002. "Robustness and Pricing with Uncertain Growth," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 363-404, March.
  8. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March.
  9. Brian D. Kluger & Steve B. Wyatt, 2004. "Are Judgment Errors Reflected in Market Prices and Allocations? Experimental Evidence Based on the Monty Hall Problem," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 969-998, 06.
  10. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2004. "Differentiating ambiguity and ambiguity attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 133-173, October.
  11. Rose-Anne Dana, 2004. "Ambiguity, uncertainty aversion and equilibrium welfare," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 569-587, March.
  12. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Ambiguity and Asset Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
  2. repec:pra:mprapa:34920 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Nina Boyarchenko & Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Stewart Hodges, 2012. "No good deals—no bad models," Staff Reports 589, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2013. "Ambiguity in asset pricing and portfolio choice: a review of the literature," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 183-217, February.
  5. Jayant Ganguli & Scott Condie & Philipp Karl Illeditsch, 2012. "Information Inertia," Economics Discussion Papers 719, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  6. Alejandro Balbás & Beatriz Balbás & Raquel Balbás, 2011. "CAPM-like formulae and good deal absence with ambiguous setting and coherent risk measure," Business Economics Working Papers id-11-04, Universidad Carlos III, Instituto sobre Desarrollo Empresarial "Carmen Vidal Ballester".
  7. Jonathan E. Alevy, 2011. "Ambiguity in Individual Choice and Market Environments: On the Importance of Comparative Ignorance," Working Papers 2011-04, University of Alaska Anchorage, Department of Economics.
  8. Matteo Del Vigna, 2011. "Ambiguity made easier," DiMaD Working Papers 2011-07, Dipartimento di Matematica per le Decisioni, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze.
  9. Martin Schneider, 2010. "The Research Agenda: Martin Schneider on Multiple Priors Preferences and Financial Markets," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), April.
  10. Menachem Brenner & Yehuda Izhakian & Orly Sade, 2011. "Ambiguity and Overconfidence," Working Papers 11-06, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.

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