Ambiguity in Asset Markets: Theory and Experiment
Abstract
This paper studies the impact of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion on equilibrium asset prices and portfolio holdings in competitive financial markets. It argues that attitudes toward ambiguity are heterogeneous across the population, just as attitudes toward risk are heterogeneous across the population, but that heterogeneity of attitudes toward ambiguity has different implications than heterogeneity of attitudes toward risk. In pa rticular, when some state probabilities are not known, agents who are sufficiently ambiguity averse find open sets of prices for which they refuse to hold an ambiguous portfolio. This suggests a different cross section of portfolio choices, a wider range of state price/probability ratios, and different rankings of state price/probability ratios than would be predicted if state probabilities were known. Experiments confirm all of these suggestions. Our findings contradict the claim that investors who have cognitive biases do not affect prices because they are inframarginal: ambiguity-averse investors have an indirect effect on prices because they change the per capita amount of risk that is to be shared among the marginal investors. Our experimental data also suggest a positive correlation between risk aversion and ambiguity aversion that might explain the "value effect" in historical data. The Author 2010 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.Download Info
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Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.
Volume (Year): 23 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
Pages: 1325-1359
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Related research
Keywords:Other versions of this item:
- Peter Bossaerts & Paolo Ghirardato & Serena Guarnaschelli & William R. Zame, 2006. "Ambiguity in Asset Markets: Theory and Experiment," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 27, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2009.
- C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
- D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010.
"Ambiguity and Asset Markets,"
Annual Review of Financial Economics,
Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
- Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Ambiguity and Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 16181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:pra:mprapa:34920 is not listed on IDEAS
- Nina Boyarchenko & Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Stewart Hodges, 2012.
"No good deals—no bad models,"
Staff Reports
589, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Nina Boyarchenko & Mario Cerrato & John Crosby & Stewart Hodges, 2013. "No Good Deals - No Bad Models," Working Papers 2013_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2013.
"Ambiguity in asset pricing and portfolio choice: a review of the literature,"
Theory and Decision,
Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 183-217, February.
- Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2010. "Ambiguity in asset pricing and portfolio choice: a review of the literature," Working Papers 2010-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2011. "Ambiguity in Asset Pricing and Portfolio Choice: A Review of the Literature," Working Papers 417, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Jayant Ganguli & Scott Condie & Philipp Karl Illeditsch, 2012. "Information Inertia," Economics Discussion Papers 719, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
- Alejandro Balbás & Beatriz Balbás & Raquel Balbás, 2011. "CAPM-like formulae and good deal absence with ambiguous setting and coherent risk measure," Business Economics Working Papers id-11-04, Universidad Carlos III, Instituto sobre Desarrollo Empresarial "Carmen Vidal Ballester".
- Jonathan E. Alevy, 2011. "Ambiguity in Individual Choice and Market Environments: On the Importance of Comparative Ignorance," Working Papers 2011-04, University of Alaska Anchorage, Department of Economics.
- Matteo Del Vigna, 2011. "Ambiguity made easier," DiMaD Working Papers 2011-07, Dipartimento di Matematica per le Decisioni, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze.
- Martin Schneider, 2010. "The Research Agenda: Martin Schneider on Multiple Priors Preferences and Financial Markets," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), April.
- Menachem Brenner & Yehuda Izhakian & Orly Sade, 2011. "Ambiguity and Overconfidence," Working Papers 11-06, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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