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Basic Principles of Asset Pricing Theory: Evidence from Large-Scale Experimental Financial Markets

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Author Info
Peter Bossaerts
Charles Plott

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Abstract

We report on two sets of large-scale financial markets experiments that were designed to test the central proposition of modern asset pricing theory, namely, that risk premia are solely determined by covariance with aggregate risk. We analyze the pricing within the framework suggested by two theoretical models, namely, the (general) Arrow and Debreu's complete-markets model, and the (more specific) Sharpe-Lintner-Mossin Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Completeness of the asset payoff structure justifies the former; the small (albeit non-negligible) risks justifies the latter. We observe swift convergence towards price patterns predicted in the Arrow and Debreu and CAPM models. This observation is significant, because subjects always lack the information to deliberately set asset prices using either model. In the first set of experiments, however, equilibration is not always robust, with markets temporarily veering away. We conjecture that this reflects our failure to control subjects' beliefs about the temporal independence of the payouts. Confirming this conjecture, the anomaly disappears in a second set of experiments, where states were drawn without replacement. We formally test whether CAPM and Arrow--Debreu equilibrium can be used to predict price movements in our experiments and confirm the hypothesis. When multiplying the subject payout tenfold (in real terms), to US $ 500 on average for a 3-h experiment, the results are unaltered, except for an increase in the recorded risk premia.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal European Finance Review.

Volume (Year): 8 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 135-169
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:kap:eurfin:v:8:y:2004:i:2:p:135-169

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Forsythe, Robert & Palfrey, Thomas R & Plott, Charles R, 1984. " Futures Markets and Informational Efficiency: A Laboratory Examination," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 955-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bossaerts, Peter & Kleiman, Daniel & Plott, Charles, 1998. "Price Discovery in Financial Markets: The Case of the CAPM," Working Papers 1032, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  3. Rajnish Mehra & Raaj Sah, . "Can Small Fluctuations in Investors' Subjective Preferences Induce Large Volatility in Equity Prices?," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 22-98, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    Other versions:
  4. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Rubinstein, Mark, 1994. " Implied Binomial Trees," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 771-818, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October. [Downloadable!]
  8. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S85-118, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kroll, Yoram & Levy, Haim & Rapoport, Amnon, 1988. "Experimental Tests of the Separation Theorem and the Capital Asset Pricing Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 500-519, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1988. "Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1085-1118, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R & Riezman, Raymond G, 1995. "An Experimental Investigation of the Patterns of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 462-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Lei, V. & Noussair, C. & Plott, C.R., 1998. "Non-Speculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality Vs. Actual Irrationality," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1120, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
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  14. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Roll, Richard, 1977. "A critique of the asset pricing theory's tests Part I: On past and potential testability of the theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 129-176, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Nielsen, Lars Tyge, 1988. "Uniqueness of Equilibrium in the Classical Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(03), pages 329-336, September. [Downloadable!]
  17. Levy, Haim, 1997. "Risk and Return: An Experimental Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(1), pages 119-49, February.
  18. Mark Rubinstein., 1994. "Implied Binomial Trees," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-232, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
  19. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Tauchen, George E. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1995. "Which Moments to Match," Working Papers 95-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  21. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-86, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peter Bossaerts & Charles Plott & William R. Zame, 2006. "Prices and Portfolio Choices in Financial Markets: Theory and Experiment," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001322, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Narayanan Jayaraman, 2002. "Circuit breakers with uncertainty about the presence of informed agents: I know what you know . . . I think," Working Paper 2002-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  3. Cao , Henry & Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Zhang, Harold, 2007. "Fear of the Unknown: Familiarity and Economic Decisions," MPRA Paper 6512, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jack Ochs & Li Qi, 2006. "Information Use and Transference," Working Papers 236, University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2006. [Downloadable!]
  5. Catherine Eckel & Rick Wilson, 2006. "Internet cautions: Experimental games with internet partners," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 53-66, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Peter Bossaerts & Paolo Ghirardato & Serena Guarnaschelli & William R. Zame, 2006. "Ambiguity in Asset Markets: Theory and Experiment," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 27, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2009. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter Bossaerts & William R. Zame, 2006. "Risk Aversion in Laboratory Asset Markets," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001317, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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