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Heterogeneous Beliefs, Speculation, and the Equity Premium

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  • ALEXANDER DAVID
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    Abstract

    Agents with heterogeneous beliefs about fundamental growth do not share risks perfectly but instead speculate with each other on the relative accuracy of their models' predictions. They face the risk that market prices move more in line with the trading models of competing agents than with their own. Less risk-averse agents speculate more aggressively and demand higher risk premiums. My calibrated model generates countercyclical consumption volatility, earnings forecast dispersion, and cross-sectional consumption dispersion. With a risk aversion coefficient less than one, agents' speculation causes half the observed equity premium and lowers the riskless rate by about 1%. Copyright 2008 by The American Finance Association.

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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01310.x
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 63 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 (02)
    Pages: 41-83

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:63:y:2008:i:1:p:41-83

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    Cited by:
    1. Christensen, Peter Ove & Larsen, Kasper & Munk, Claus, 2012. "Equilibrium in securities markets with heterogeneous investors and unspanned income risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 1035-1063.
    2. Söderlind, Paul, 2009. "Inflation Risk Premia and Survey Evidence on Macroeconomic Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 7250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. A. A. Brown, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Partial Observations," Papers 0907.4950, arXiv.org.
    4. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Paul Söderlind, 2008. "Why Disagreement May Not Matter (much) for Asset Prices," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-11, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    6. Bakshi, Gurdip & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2010. "Do subjective expectations explain asset pricing puzzles?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 462-477, December.
    7. Weihong HUANG & Wanying Wang, 2012. "Price-Volume Relations in Financial Market," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 1209, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
    8. Jouini, Elyès & Napp, Clotilde, 2009. "Unbiased Disagreement and the Efficient Market Hypothesis," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/3495, Paris Dauphine University.
    9. Zhenjiang Qin, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Public Information, and Option Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2012-23, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    10. Bruce I. Carlin & Francis A. Longstaff & Kyle Matoba, 2012. "Disagreement and Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 18619, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Elyès Jouini & Clotilde Napp, 2010. "Unbiased Disagreement in Financial Markets, Waves of Pessimism and the Risk-Return Trade-off," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 575-601.
    12. Qin, Zhenjiang, 2013. "Speculations in option markets enhance allocation efficiency with heterogeneous beliefs and learning," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4675-4694.
    13. Kang, Hyung Cheol & Lee, Dong Wook & Park, Kyung Suh, 2010. "Does the difference in valuation between domestic and foreign investors help explain their distinct holdings of domestic stocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2886-2896, December.
    14. Pascal François & Alon Raviv, 2014. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and the Choice Between Private Restructuring and Formal Bankruptcy," Cahiers de recherche 1401, CIRPEE.
    15. Raman Uppal & Harjoat Bhamra, 2013. "Asset Prices with Heterogeneity in Preferences and Beliefs," 2013 Meeting Papers 1344, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Fernandez, Pablo & Aguirreamalloa, Javier & Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "The equity premium puzzle: High required equity premium, undervaluation and self fulfilling prophecy," IESE Research Papers D/821, IESE Business School.

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