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Model Uncertainty and Option Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs

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Author Info
ANDREA BURASCHI
ALEXEI JILTSOV

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Abstract

This paper provides option pricing and volume implications for an economy with heterogeneous agents who face model uncertainty and have different beliefs on expected returns. Market incompleteness makes options nonredundant, while heterogeneity creates a link between differences in beliefs and option volumes. We solve for both option prices and volumes and test the joint empirical implications using S&P500 index option data. Specifically, we use survey data to build an Index of Dispersion in Beliefs and find that a model that takes information heterogeneity into account can explain the dynamics of option volume and the smile better than can reduced-form models with stochastic volatility. Copyright 2006 by The American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2006.01006.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 61 (2006)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 2841-2897
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:61:y:2006:i:6:p:2841-2897

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  1. Dumas, Bernard J & Kurshev, Alexander & Uppal, Raman, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 6455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2007. "Equilibrium Portfolio Strategies in the Presence of Sentiment Risk and Excess Volatility," NBER Working Papers 13401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bernard Dumas & Alexander Kurshev & Raman Uppal, 2005. "What Can Rational Investors Do About Excessive Volatility and Sentiment Fluctuations?," NBER Working Papers 11803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Alessandro Beber & Michael W. Brandt, 2006. "Resolving Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Stock and Bond Markets," NBER Working Papers 12270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Broadie, Mark & Chernov, Mikhail & Johannes, Michael, 2007. "Understanding Index Option Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 6239, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. A. A. Brown, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Partial Observations," Quantitative Finance Papers 0907.4950, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  7. A. A. Brown & L. C. G. Rogers, 2009. "Heterogeneous Beliefs with Finite-Lived Agents," Quantitative Finance Papers 0907.4953, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
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