Disagreement and Learning: Dynamic Patterns of Trade
AbstractThe empirical evidence on investor disagreement and trading volume is difficult to reconcile in standard rational expectations models. We develop a dynamic model in which investors disagree about the interpretation of public information. We obtain a closed-form linear equilibrium that allows us to study which restrictions on the disagreement process yield empirically observed volume and return dynamics. We show that when investors have infrequent but major disagreements, there is positive autocorrelation in volume and positive correlation between volume and volatility. We also derive novel empirical predictions that relate the degree and frequency of disagreement to volume and volatility dynamics. Copyright (c) 2010 the American Finance Association.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.
Volume (Year): 65 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (08)
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- Zhenjiang Qin, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Public Information, and Option Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2012-23, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Weihong HUANG & Wanying Wang, 2012. "Price-Volume Relations in Financial Market," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 1209, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
- Kondor, Péter, 2011. "The more we know on the fundamental, the less we agree on the price," CEPR Discussion Papers 8455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dagfinn Rime & Andreas Schrimpf, 2013. "The anatomy of the global FX market through the lens of the 2013 Triennial Survey," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
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