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The value of diffusing information

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  • Manela, Asaf

Abstract

How does the speed by which information diffuses affect its value to a stock market investor? In a structural model solved in closed-form, this speed has two opposing effects on the empirically dominant term of the value of information. Faster-diffusing information means quicker and less noisy profits, but, also increases competing informed trading, impounding more information into prices and eroding profits. Structural empirical analysis of stock market reaction to drug approvals using media coverage as a proxy for the transmission rate of information finds that the value of information is hump-shaped in its future transmission rate. Moreover, the estimated amount of noise trading is small.

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  • Manela, Asaf, 2014. "The value of diffusing information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 181-199.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:111:y:2014:i:1:p:181-199
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.10.007
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    3. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021.
    4. Avdis, Efstathios, 2016. "Information tradeoffs in dynamic financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 568-584.
    5. Ganglmair, Bernhard & Holcomb, Alex & Myung, Noah, 2020. "Expectations of reciprocity when competitors share information: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 244-267.
    6. Zin Yau Heng & Henry Leung, 2023. "The role of option‐based information on StockTwits, options trading volume, and stock returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(8), pages 1091-1125, August.
    7. Bertomeu, Jeremy & Marinovic, Iván & Terry, Stephen J. & Varas, Felipe, 2022. "The dynamics of concealment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 227-246.
    8. Bryan T. Kelly & Asaf Manela & Alan Moreira, 2019. "Text Selection," NBER Working Papers 26517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Peress, Joel & Schmidt, Daniel, 2021. "Noise traders incarnate: Describing a realistic noise trading process," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    10. Alex Chinco, 2023. "The Ex Ante Likelihood of Bubbles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(2), pages 1222-1244, February.
    11. Zhiguo He & Asaf Manela, 2016. "Information Acquisition in Rumor‐Based Bank Runs," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1113-1158, June.
    12. Ganglmair, Bernhard & Holcomb, Alex & Myung, Noah, 2016. "Cutthroats or comrades: Information sharing among competing fund managers," MPRA Paper 71506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kendall, Chad, 2018. "The time cost of information in financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 118-157.
    14. Donald B. Keim & Massimo Massa & Bastian von Beschwitz, 2018. "First to \"Read\" the News: New Analytics and Algorithmic Trading," International Finance Discussion Papers 1233, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Buehlmaier, Matthias M. M. & Zechner, Josef, 2016. "Financial media, price discovery, and merger arbitrage," CFS Working Paper Series 551, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    16. Manela, Asaf & Moreira, Alan, 2017. "News implied volatility and disaster concerns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 137-162.
    17. Frank, Murray Z. & Sanati, Ali, 2018. "How does the stock market absorb shocks?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 136-153.
    18. Lou, Youcheng & Wang, Shouyang, 2021. "The equivalence of two rational expectations equilibrium economies with different approaches to processing neighbors’ information," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 93-105.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Value of information; Information diffusion; Percolation; Media coverage; Drug approvals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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