Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Rational Trader Risk

Contents:

Author Info

  • Péter Kondor

Abstract

Allowing for a richer information structure than usual, we show that rational traders’ calculation with short-term price fluctuations may heavily influence their behaviour even if the interim price is not influenced by non-rational agents i.e. there is no noise trader risk. Instead, traders expect that new rational entrants with different information in the interim period will drive the price against them. Consequently, rational traders in the first period will hesitate to trade on their private information or - in the extreme - will trade against their private information i.e. buy more of the risky asset when they consider it worse. In the first part we develop a microstructure model with learning where the above effect will result in severe inefficiency and mispricing. In the second part, we discuss the critical properties of the information structure which are expected to result in similar findings in general models.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/discussionPapers/fmgdps/dp533.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp533.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp533

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
  2. Andrei Shleifer ad Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1725, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Abreu, Dilip & Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2002. "Synchronization risk and delayed arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 341-360.
  4. Kyle, Albert S, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 317-55, July.
  5. Stephen Morris, . "Speculative Investor Behavior and Learning," Penn CARESS Working Papers d12f7936881423171f6589501, Penn Economics Department.
  6. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May.
  7. Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2001. "Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296980.
  8. Biais, Bruno & Bossaerts, Peter, 1998. "Asset Prices and Trading Volume in a Beauty Contest," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 307-40, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Péter Kondor, 2009. "The more we know, the less we agree: Higher-order expectations and public announcements," 2009 Meeting Papers 1018, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Cespa, Giovanni & Vives, Xavier, 2009. "Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices: Keynes vs. Hayek," CEPR Discussion Papers 7506, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp533. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (The FMG Administration).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.