The boy who cried bubble: public warnings against riding bubbles
AbstractAttempts by governments to stop bubbles by issuing warnings seem unsuccessful. This paper examines the effects of public warnings using a simple model of riding bubbles. We show that public warnings against a bubble can stop it if investors believe that a warning is issued in a definite range of periods commencing around the starting period of the bubble. If a warning involves the possibility of being issued too early, regardless of the starting period of the bubble, it cannot stop the bubble immediately. Bubble duration can be shortened by a premature public warning, but lengthened if it is late. Our model suggests that governments need to lower the probability of spurious warnings.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper with number 167.
Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 16 Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Yasushi Asako & Kozo Ueda, 2014. "The Boy Who Cried Bubble: Public Warnings against Riding Bubbles," CAMA Working Papers 2014-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Yasushi Asako & Kozo Ueda, 2012. "The Boy Who Cried Bubble: Public Warnings Against Riding Bubbles," CARF F-Series CARF-F-282, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
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