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A leverage-based model of speculative bubbles

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  • Gadi Barlevy

Abstract

This paper examines whether theoretical models of bubbles based on the notion that the price of an asset can deviate from its fundamental value are useful for understanding phenomena that are often described as bubbles, and which are distinguished by other features such as large and rapid booms and busts in asset prices together with high turnover in asset ownership. In particular, I focus on riskshifting models similar to those developed in Allen and Gorton (1993) and Allen and Gale (2000). I show that such models could explain these phenomena, and discuss under what conditions booms and speculative trading would emerge. In addition, I show that these models imply that speculative bubbles can be associated with low rather than high premia on loans, in accordance with observations on credit conditions during episodes in which asset prices boomed and crashed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-2011-07.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2011-07

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Keywords: Speculation;

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  1. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
  2. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-55, January.
  3. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
  4. Peter Temin & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2003. "Riding the South Sea Bubble," Working Papers 91, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. Gadi Barlevy & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2010. "Mortgage choices and housing speculation," Working Paper Series WP-2010-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  6. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  7. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
  8. Simon Kwan, 2000. "Margin requirements as a policy tool?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar24.
  9. Allen, Franklin & Gorton, Gary, 1993. "Churning Bubbles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 813-36, October.
  10. Gale, D. & Allen, F., 1991. "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices," Weiss Center Working Papers 14-91, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
  11. Hong, Harrison & Sraer, David, 2013. "Quiet bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 596-606.
  12. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1986. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2011. "A Theory of Asset Prices Based on Heterogeneous Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1827, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  14. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  15. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May.
  16. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  17. Manishi Prasad & Peter Wahlqvist & Rich Shikiar & Ya-Chen Tina Shih, 2004. "A," PharmacoEconomics, Springer Healthcare | Adis, vol. 22(4), pages 225-244.
  18. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
  19. Hajime Miyazaki, 1977. "The Rat Race and Internal Labor Markets," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(2), pages 394-418, Autumn.
  20. Allen F. & Morris S. & Postlewaite A., 1993. "Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 206-229, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Blommestein, H.J. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Qian, Z., 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules, Adverse Selection and Long-Run Financial Risk," Discussion Paper 2011-121, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Blommestein, Hans J. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Qian, Zongxin, 2011. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules, Adverse Selection and Long-Run Financial Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8652, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Lawrence Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock market booms," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 85-145.
  4. Randall Wright & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2011. "Liquidity and Asset Market Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 103, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Stefano Giglio & Tiago Severo, 2011. "Intangible Capital, Relative Asset Shortages and Bubbles," IMF Working Papers 11/271, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Acharya, Viral V & Naqvi, Hassan, 2012. "The Seeds of a Crisis: A Theory of Bank Liquidity and Risk-Taking over the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 8851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Acharya, Viral & Naqvi, Hassan, 2012. "The seeds of a crisis: A theory of bank liquidity and risk taking over the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 349-366.
  8. Luik, Marc-André & Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2014. "Bubbles over the U.S. business cycle: A macroeconometric approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 27-41.
  9. Lubos Komarek & Ivana Kubicová, 2011. "The Classification and Identification of Asset Price Bubbles," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(1), pages 34-48, January.
  10. Dubecq, S. & Mojon, B. & Ragot, X., 2009. "Fuzzy Capital Requirements, Risk-Shifting and the Risk Taking Channel of Monetary Policy," Working papers 254, Banque de France.

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