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A leverage-based model of speculative bubbles

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Author Info
Gadi Barlevy

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Abstract

This paper develops an equilibrium model of speculative bubbles that can be used to explore the role of various policies in either giving rise to or eliminating the possibility of asset bubbles, e.g. restricting the use of certain types of loan contracts, imposing down- payment restrictions, and changing inter-bank rates. As in previous work by Allen and Gorton (1993) and Allen and Gale (2000), a bubble arises in the model because traders are assumed to purchase assets with borrowed funds. My model adds to this literature by allowing creditors and traders to enter into a more general class of contracts, as well as by allowing speculators to trade strategically.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-08-01.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-08-01

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Keywords: Speculation;

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  1. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Allen F. & Morris S. & Postlewaite A., 1993. "Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 206-229, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
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  7. Temin, Peter & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2004. "Riding the South Sea Bubble," CEPR Discussion Papers 4221, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Abel, Andrew B, et al, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Simon Kwan, 2000. "Margin requirements as a policy tool?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar 24. [Downloadable!]
  11. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-55, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Allen, Franklin & Gorton, Gary, 1993. "Churning Bubbles," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 60(4), pages 813-36, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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