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Behavioral Aspects of Arbitrageurs in Timing Games of Bubbles and Crashes

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  • Hitoshi Matsushima

    (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo, Tokyo)

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the theoretical foundation that underlies the willingness of rational arbitrageurs to delay and reinforce the speculative attack. The key assumptions are that there is a small probability that arbitrageurs are behavioral and never time the market of their own accord and it is uncertain whether arbitrageurs are behavioral or rational. We model a stock market as a timing game, in which arbitrageurs compete to react quickest. We show that rational arbitrageurs are willing to ride the bubble for a long period. We also characterize symmetric Nash equilibria and show the sufficient condition for uniqueness

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo in its series CARF F-Series with number CARF-F-285.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf285

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  1. D. Abreu & F. Gul, 1998. "Bargaining and Reputation," Princeton Economic Theory Papers 00s9, Economics Department, Princeton University.
  2. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
  3. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  4. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
  5. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
  6. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June.
  7. Conlon, John R., 2003. "Hope springs eternal: learning and the stability of cooperation in short horizon repeated games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 35-65, September.
  8. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2010. "Financing Harmful Bubbles," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-756, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  9. Allen, Franklin & Gorton, Gary, 1993. "Churning Bubbles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 813-36, October.
  10. Allen F. & Morris S. & Postlewaite A., 1993. "Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 206-229, December.
  11. Abreu, Dilip & Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2002. "Synchronization risk and delayed arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 341-360.
  12. Kreps, David M. & Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John & Wilson, Robert, 1982. "Rational cooperation in the finitely repeated prisoners' dilemma," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 245-252, August.
  13. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May.
  14. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272, September.
  15. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2013. "Impact of Financial Regulation and Innovation on Bubbles and Crashes due to Limited Arbitrage: Awareness Heterogeneity," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-876, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  2. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2012. "Role of Leverage in Bubbles and Crashes," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-859, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  3. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2010. "Financing Harmful Bubbles," KIER Working Papers 711, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2013. "How Do Experienced Traders Respond to Inflows of Inexperienced Traders? An Experimental Analysis," Working Papers halshs-00920413, HAL.

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