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Behavioral Aspects of Arbitrageurs in Timing Games of Bubbles and Crashes

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  • Hitoshi Matsushima

    (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo, Tokyo)

Abstract

This paper demonstrates the theoretical foundation that underlies the willingness of rational arbitrageurs to delay and reinforce the speculative attack. The key assumptions are that there is a small probability that arbitrageurs are behavioral and never time the market of their own accord and it is uncertain whether arbitrageurs are behavioral or rational. We model a stock market as a timing game, in which arbitrageurs compete to react quickest. We show that rational arbitrageurs are willing to ride the bubble for a long period. We also characterize symmetric Nash equilibria and show the sufficient condition for uniqueness

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File URL: http://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/pdf/workingpaper/fseries/297.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo in its series CARF F-Series with number CARF-F-285.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf285

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  1. Allen F. & Morris S. & Postlewaite A., 1993. "Finite Bubbles with Short Sale Constraints and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 206-229, December.
  2. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2010. "Financing Harmful Bubbles," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-756, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  3. David Kreps & Paul Milgrom & John Roberts & Bob Wilson, 2010. "Rational Cooperation in the Finitely Repeated Prisoners' Dilemma," Levine's Working Paper Archive 239, David K. Levine.
  4. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
  5. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
  6. Abreu, Dilip & Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2002. "Synchronization risk and delayed arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 341-360.
  7. Dilip Abreu & Faruk Gul, 2000. "Bargaining and Reputation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 85-118, January.
  8. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May.
  9. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
  10. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  11. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
  12. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Conlon, John R., 2003. "Hope springs eternal: learning and the stability of cooperation in short horizon repeated games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 35-65, September.
  14. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June.
  15. Allen, Franklin & Gorton, Gary, 1993. "Churning Bubbles," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 813-36, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2013. "Impact of Financial Regulation and Innovation on Bubbles and Crashes due to Limited Arbitrage: Awareness Heterogeneity," CARF F-Series CARF-F-306, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  2. Eizo Akiyama & Nobuyuki Hanaki & Ryuichiro Ishikawa, 2013. "How Do Experienced Traders Respond to Inflows of Inexperienced Traders? An Experimental Analysis," AMSE Working Papers 1359, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 18 Dec 2013.
  3. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2010. "Financing Harmful Bubbles," CARF F-Series CARF-F-227, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  4. Hitoshi Matsushima, 2012. "Role of Leverage in Bubbles and Crashes," CARF F-Series CARF-F-288, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

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