Behavioral Aspects of Arbitrageurs in Timing Games of Bubbles and Crashes
AbstractThis paper demonstrates the theoretical foundation that underlies the willingness of rational arbitrageurs to delay and reinforce the speculative attack. The key assumptions are that there is a small probability that arbitrageurs are behavioral and never time the market of their own accord and it is uncertain whether arbitrageurs are behavioral or rational. We model a stock market as a timing game, in which arbitrageurs compete to react quickest. We show that rational arbitrageurs are willing to ride the bubble for a long period. We also characterize symmetric Nash equilibria and show the sufficient condition for uniqueness.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo in its series CIRJE F-Series with number CIRJE-F-857.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Matsushima, Hitoshi, 2013. "Behavioral aspects of arbitrageurs in timing games of bubbles and crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 858-870.
- Hitoshi Matsushima, 2012. "Behavioral Aspects of Arbitrageurs in Timing Games of Bubbles and Crashes," CARF F-Series CARF-F-285, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Hitoshi Matsushima, 2009. "Behavioral Aspects of Arbitrageurs in Timing Games of Bubbles and Crashes," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-606, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Hitoshi Matsushima, 2009. "Behavioral Aspects of Arbitrageurs in Timing Games of Bubbles and Crashes," CARF F-Series CARF-F-144, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
- C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
- D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-08-23 (All new papers)
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