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Crises and Prices: Information Aggregation, Multiplicity and Volatility

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George-Marios Angeletos
Ivan Werning

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Abstract

Many argue that crises -- such as currency attacks, bank runs and riots -- can be described as times of non-fundamental volatility. We argue that crises are also times when endogenous sources of information are closely monitored and thus an important part of the phenomena. We study the role of endogenous information in generating volatility by introducing a financial market in a coordination game where agents have heterogeneous information about the fundamentals. The equilibrium price aggregates information without restoring common knowledge. In contrast to the case with exogenous information, we find that uniqueness may not be obtained as a perturbation from common knowledge: multiplicity is ensured when individuals observe fundamentals with small idiosyncratic noise. Multiplicity may emerge also in the financial price. When the equilibrium is unique, it becomes more sensitive to non-fundamental shocks as private noise is reduced.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11015.

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Date of creation: Dec 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11015

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  19. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2000. "Rethinking Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Modelling," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1260, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bruno, Randolph Luca, 2008. "Rule of Law, Institutional Quality and Information," IZA Discussion Papers 3497, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Endogenous Public Signals and Coordination," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001309, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tijmen Daniëls & Henk Jager & Franc Klaassen, 2009. "Defending Against Speculative Attacks," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-011, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jean-Pierre ALLEGRET & Camille CORNAND, 2006. "The pros and cons of higher transparency : the case of speculative attacks," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2006031, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
  5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Daniel Friedman, 2008. "Speculative Attacks: A Laboratory Study in Continuous Time," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. David P. Myatt & Chris Wallace, 2008. "On the Sources and Value of Information: Public Announcements and Macroeconomic Performance," Economics Series Working Papers 411, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christian Hellwig, 2005. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition (March 2007, with Laura Veldkamp)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 369, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Eugen Kovac & Jakub Steiner, 2008. "Reversibility in Dynamic Coordination Problems," ESE Discussion Papers 183, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Christian Hellwig, 2004. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates (A.E.R., December 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 338, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Geir H. Bjønnes & Steinar Holden & Dagfinn Rime & Haakon O. Aa. Solheim, 2009. "'Large' vs. 'Small' Players: A Closer Look at the Dynamics of Speculative Attacks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2008. "Vulnerability of Currency Pegs: Evidence from Brazil," CEP Discussion Papers dp0871, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kannan, Prakash & Kohler-Geib, Fritzi, 2009. "The uncertainty channel of contagion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4995, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2007. "Common Belief Foundations of Global Games," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001638, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Hellwig, Christian & Veldkamp, Laura, 2007. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6506, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2005. "Efficiency and Welfare with Complementarities and Asymmetric Information," NBER Working Papers 11826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Rafael Santos & Aloisio Araujo, 2007. "Inflation Targeting, Credibility and Confidence Crises," Working Papers Series 140, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Christian Hellwig, . "Policy in a Global Coordination Game: Multiplicity vs. Robust Predictions (November 2006, with Marios Angeletos and Alessandro Pavan)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 401, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Hennessy, David A., 2007. "Coordinating to Eradicate Animal Disease, and the Role of Insurance Markets," Staff General Research Papers 12856, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. George-Marios Angeletos, 2008. "Private Sunspots and Idiosyncratic Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 14015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-21.

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