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Information, Amplification and Financial Crisis

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  • Toni Ahnert
  • Ali Kakhbod

Abstract

We propose a parsimonious model of information choice in a global coordination game of regime change that is used to analyze debt crises, bank runs or currency attacks. A change in the publicly available information alters the uncertainty about the behavior of other investors. Greater strategic uncertainty makes private information more valuable, so more investors acquire information. This change in the proportion of informed investors amplifies the impact of the initial change in public information on the probability of a crisis. Our amplification result explains how a small deterioration in public information can cause a financial crisis.

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  • Toni Ahnert & Ali Kakhbod, 2014. "Information, Amplification and Financial Crisis," Staff Working Papers 14-30, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:14-30
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahnert, Toni & Martinez-Miera, David, 2021. "Bank Runs, Bank Competition and Opacity," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242348, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Caio Machado, 2023. "Managing Overreaction During a Run," Documentos de Trabajo 574, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    3. Linda Schilling, 2018. "Optimal Forbearance of Bank Resolution," Working Papers 2018-15, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    4. Alex Petkevich & Andrew Prevost, 2018. "Managerial ability, information quality, and the design and pricing of corporate debt," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1033-1069, November.
    5. Toni Ahnert & Christoph Bertsch, 2022. "A Wake-Up Call Theory of Contagion [Asymmetric business cycles: theory and time-series evidence]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(4), pages 829-854.
    6. Rashad Ahmed & Iñaki Aldasoro & Chanelle Duley, 2024. "Public information and stablecoin runs," BIS Working Papers 1164, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Schilling, Linda, 2017. "Optimal Forbearance of Bank Resolution," MPRA Paper 112409, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ahnert, Toni & Georg, Co-Pierre, 2018. "Information contagion and systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 159-171.
    9. Arifovic, Jasmina & Jiang, Janet Hua, 2019. "Strategic uncertainty and the power of extrinsic signals– evidence from an experimental study of bank runs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 1-17.
    10. Ahnert, Toni & Elamin, Mahmoud, 2020. "Bank runs, portfolio choice, and liquidity provision," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    11. Wang, Bo, 2022. "Ambiguity aversion and amplification of financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    12. Jasmina Arifovic & Janet Hua Jiang, 2014. "Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs," Staff Working Papers 14-12, Bank of Canada.
    13. Javier Bianchi & Enrique Mendoza, 2020. "A Fisherian Approach to Financial Crises: Lessons from the Sudden Stops Literature," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 254-283, August.
    14. Kakhbod, Ali & Song, Fei, 2020. "Dynamic price discovery: Transparency vs. information design," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 203-232.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Institutions; Financial stability;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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