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Crises and Prices: Information Aggregation, Multiplicity, and Volatility

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Author Info
George-Marios Angeletos
Iván Werning

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Abstract

Crises are volatile times when endogenous sources of information are closely monitored. We study the role of information in crises by introducing a financial market in a coordination game with imperfect information. The asset price aggregates dispersed private information acting as a public noisy signal. In contrast to the case with exogenous information, our main result is that uniqueness may not obtain as a perturbation from perfect information: multiplicity is ensured with small noise. In addition, we show that: (a) multiplicity may emerge in the financial price itself; (b) less noise may contribute toward nonfundamental volatility even when the equilibrium is unique; and (c) similar results obtain for a model where individuals observe one another?s actions, highlighting the importance of endogenous information more generally. (JEL D53, D82, D83)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1257/aer.96.5.1720
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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 96 (2006)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1720-1736
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:96:y:2006:i:5:p:1720-1736

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1976. "Information and Competitive Price Systems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 246-53, May.
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  4. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2003. "Coordination and Policy Traps," NBER Working Papers 9767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Rochet, Jean-Charles & Vives, Xavier, 2004. "Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort : Was Bagehot Right After All?," IDEI Working Papers 294, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Grossman, Sanford J, 1977. "The Existence of Futures Markets, Noisy Rational Expectations and Informational Externalities," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(3), pages 431-49, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity Black Holes," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18. [Downloadable!]
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  9. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2004. "Information Dynamics and Equilibrium Multiplicity in Global Games of Regime Change," NBER Working Papers 11017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Stephen Morris & Hyun S Shin, 2001. "Global Games: Theory and Applications," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000001080, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Barlevy, Gadi & Veronesi, Pietro, 2003. "Rational panics and stock market crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 234-263, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "Hot Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1262-1292, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-61, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Timothy J, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116, January.
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  22. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 1999. "Coordination Risk and the Price of Debt," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1241R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Feb 2002. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bruno, Randolph Luca, 2008. "Rule of Law, Institutional Quality and Information," IZA Discussion Papers 3497, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2006. "Endogenous Public Signals and Coordination," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001309, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Tijmen Daniëls & Henk Jager & Franc Klaassen, 2009. "Defending Against Speculative Attacks," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-011, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jean-Pierre ALLEGRET & Camille CORNAND, 2006. "The pros and cons of higher transparency : the case of speculative attacks," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2006031, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
  5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Daniel Friedman, 2008. "Speculative Attacks: A Laboratory Study in Continuous Time," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  6. David P. Myatt & Chris Wallace, 2008. "On the Sources and Value of Information: Public Announcements and Macroeconomic Performance," Economics Series Working Papers 411, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christian Hellwig, 2005. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition (March 2007, with Laura Veldkamp)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 369, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Eugen Kovac & Jakub Steiner, 2008. "Reversibility in Dynamic Coordination Problems," ESE Discussion Papers 183, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Christian Hellwig, 2004. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates (A.E.R., December 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 338, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Geir H. Bjønnes & Steinar Holden & Dagfinn Rime & Haakon O. Aa. Solheim, 2009. "'Large' vs. 'Small' Players: A Closer Look at the Dynamics of Speculative Attacks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2008. "Vulnerability of Currency Pegs: Evidence from Brazil," CEP Discussion Papers dp0871, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kannan, Prakash & Kohler-Geib, Fritzi, 2009. "The uncertainty channel of contagion," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4995, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Hellwig, Christian & Veldkamp, Laura, 2007. "Knowing What Others Know: Coordination Motives in Information Acquisition," CEPR Discussion Papers 6506, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2005. "Efficiency and Welfare with Complementarities and Asymmetric Information," NBER Working Papers 11826, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Rafael Santos & Aloisio Araujo, 2007. "Inflation Targeting, Credibility and Confidence Crises," Working Papers Series 140, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. Christian Hellwig, . "Policy in a Global Coordination Game: Multiplicity vs. Robust Predictions (November 2006, with Marios Angeletos and Alessandro Pavan)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 401, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  18. R. L. Bruno, 2008. "Rule of Law, Institutional Quality and Information," Working Papers 634, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
  19. Hennessy, David A., 2007. "Coordinating to Eradicate Animal Disease, and the Role of Insurance Markets," Staff General Research Papers 12856, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. George-Marios Angeletos, 2008. "Private Sunspots and Idiosyncratic Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 14015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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