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Dynamic Speculative Attacks

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Author Info
Christophe Chamley

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Abstract

This paper presents a model of rational Bayesian agents with speculative attacks in a regime of exchange rate which is pegged within a band. Speculators learn from the observation of the exchange rate within the band whether their mass is sufficiently large for a successful attack. Multiple periods are necessary for the existence of speculative attacks. Various defense policies are analyzed. A trading policy by the central bank may defend the peg if it is unobserved and diminishes the market's information for the coordination of speculators.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1257/000282803322157007
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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles/article_detail.php?journal=AER&volume=93&issue=3&article=6&issue_date=June2003
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 93 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 603-621
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:93:y:2003:i:3:p:603-621

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gale, Douglas, 1995. "Dynamic Coordination Games," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
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  2. Chamley, Christophe & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Information Revelation and Strategic Delay in a Model of Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(5), pages 1065-85, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Carlsson, H. & Van Damme, E., 1989. "Global Payoff Uncertainty And Risk Dominance," Papers 8933, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  5. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Hellwig, Martin F., 1982. "Rational expectations equilibrium with conditioning on past prices: A mean-variance example," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 279-312, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Vives Xavier, 1995. "The Speed of Information Revelation in a Financial Market Mechanism," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 178-204, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1994. " Market Statistics and Technical Analysis: The Role of Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 153-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Guesnerie, Roger, 1992. "An Exploration of the Eductive Justifications of the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1254-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Christophe Chamley, 1999. "Coordinating Regime Switches," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(3), pages 869-905, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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