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An Exploration of the Eductive Justifications of the Rational-Expectations Hypothesis

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Guesnerie, Roger

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Abstract

This paper examines justifications of the rational-expectations hypothesis that rely on the analysis of the agents' mental forecasting ("educing") activity (which involves "forecasting the forecasts" of others, etc.). The corresponding concept of eductive learning stability, based on the game-theoretical concept of rationalizability, is primarily used within the classical Muth model. Conditions for coordination of beliefs are interpreted and discussed; they are robust to the introduction of noise. More generally, eductive stability fits economic intuition on coordination: stability increases when the industry product differentiation increases and when decisions are sequential and observable. Copyright 1992 by American Economic Association.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 82 (1992)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1254-78
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:82:y:1992:i:5:p:1254-78

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  1. Christophe Chamley, 2003. "Dynamic Speculative Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 603-621, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Azam, Jean-Paul & Dia, Magueye & N'Guessan, Tchetche, 2002. "Telecommunications sector reforms in Senegal," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2894, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Orlando Gomes, 2004. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Heterogeneous Expectations," Macroeconomics 0409023, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Eddie Dekel & Asher Wolinsky, 2000. "Rationalizable Outcomes of Large Independent Private-Value First Price Discrete Auctions," Discussion Papers 1308, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Hector Calvo Pardo, 2005. "Are the Anti-globalists right? Gains-from-trade without a Walrasian auctioneer," PSE Working Papers 2005-35, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  6. Julio Davila, 2001. "Multiplicity, Instability and Sunspots in Games," Penn CARESS Working Papers 98ea9c46b8bd85cddd877d3db, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Maik Heinemann, 2003. "Are Rational Expectations Equilibria with Private Information Eductively Stable?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 267, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. G. Desgranges & G. Negroni, 2001. "Expectations Coordination on a Sunspot Equilibrium: an Eductive Approach," THEMA Working Papers 2001-13, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise. [Downloadable!]
  9. Celine Rochon, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. George W. Evans & Roger Guesnerie, 2003. "Coordination on Saddle-Path Solutions: The Eductive Viewpoint -- Linear Multivariate Models," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2003-28, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 25 Jan 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Roger Guesnerie & Hector Calvo Pardo, 2004. "Eductive stability in sequential exchange economies: an introduction," DELTA Working Papers 2004-24, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  12. Gabriel Desgranges, 2000. "CK-Equilibria and Informational Efficiency in a Competitive Economy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1296, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gabriel Desgranges & Maik Heinemann, 2005. "Strongly rational expectations equilibria with endogenous acquisition of information," Working Paper Series in Economics 9, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Maarten C.W. Janssen, 2006. "Microfoundations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-041/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  15. Roger Guesnerie, 2006. "General equilibrium, coordination and multiplicity on spot markets," PSE Working Papers 2006-05, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  16. Roger Guesnerie, 2008. "Macroeconomic and monetary policies from the "eductive" viewpoint," PSE Working Papers 2008-24, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  17. Peter Funk, 1995. "Endogenous Growth, Temporary Equilibrium, and the Direction of Change," Discussion Paper Serie A 506, University of Bonn, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  18. Jayasri Dutta & Stephen Morris, . ""The Revelation of Information and Self-Fulfilling Beliefs''," CARESS Working Papres 95-03, University of Pennsylvania Center for Analytic Research and Economics in the Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
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  19. C.H. Hommes & J.H. Sonnemans & J. Tuinstra & H. van de Velde, 2003. "Learning in Cobweb Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-020/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Roger Guesnerie, 2005. "Strategic substitutabilities versus strategic complementarities: Towards a general theory of expectational coordination?," PSE Working Papers 2005-07, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
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