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Does transparency in central bank intervention policy bring noise to the FX market?: The case of the Bank of Japan

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  • Gnabo, Jean-Yves
  • Laurent, Sébastien
  • Lecourt, Christelle

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the induced effect of a more and less transparent central bank intervention (CBI) policy on rumors that can emerge. Using the case of Japan, we estimate a dynamic-probit model that explains the main determinants of false reports (i.e. falsely reported interventions) and anticipative rumors (i.e. rumors about future interventions) with reference to the intervention strategy adopted by the central bank for actual and oral interventions, and the uncertainty climate of the market captured by two volatility measures. Our results suggest that the induced effect of a transparent CBI policy on market rumors critically depends on the type of speeches made by officials.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money.

Volume (Year): 19 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 94-111

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Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:19:y:2009:i:1:p:94-111

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin

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Keywords: Central banks FX interventions Transparency Rumors;

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References

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  1. Michel Beine & Christelle Lecourt, 2004. "Reported and secret interventions in the foreign exchange market," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10427, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Michael Frenkel & Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2002. "The Accuracy of Press Reports Regarding the Foreign Exchange Interventions of the Bank of Japan," Kiel Working Papers 1108, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Takatoshi Ito, 2007. "Myths and reality of foreign exchange interventions: an application to Japan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 133-154.
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  17. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Oscar Bernal Diaz & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2007. "Talks, financial operations or both? Generalizing central banks' FX reaction functions," DULBEA Working Papers 07-03.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Satoshi Kawanishi, 2011. "The Information Improving Channel of Exchange Rate Intervention: How Do Official Announcements Work?," Discussion Papers 1116, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  3. Michel Beine & Oscar Bernal Diaz & Jean-Yves Gnabo & Christelle Lecourt, 2007. "Intervention Policy of the BoJ: a Unified Approach," Working Papers CEB 07-013.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  4. Jean-Yves Gnabo & Jér�me Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christelle Lecourt, 2012. "Do jumps mislead the FX market?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 1521-1532, October.
  5. Michel Beine & Oscar Bernal & Jean-Yves Gnabo & Christelle Lecourt, 2007. "Intervention Policy of the BoJ: a Unified Approach," LSF Research Working Paper Series 07-19, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
  6. Jean-Yves Gnabo & Christelle Lecourt, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Intervention Policy: With or Without Transparency? The Case of Japan," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 113, pages 5-34.

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