Central Bank Independence and the Signaling Effect of Intervention: A Preliminary Exploration
AbstractThis note explores the signaling effect of foreign exchange market intervention in countries, such as Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, where separate agencies are responsible for intervention and monetary policy. An important part of the signaling effect operates when an entity conducting intervention makes a credible commitment to a change in future monetary policy, suggesting that its effectiveness hinges upon whether the central bank is independent of government oversight. We test this conjecture by comparing the consistency of intervention and future monetary policy in Japan before and after April 1998, when central bank independence was established by the new Bank of Japan Law. As expected, the signaling effect of intervention weakened after the central bank became independent.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP) in its series Discussion Papers in Economics and Business with number 13-04.
Length: 13 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2013
Date of revision:
foreign exchange market intervention; Japanese intervention; central bank independence; signaling effect of intervention;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-03-16 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2013-03-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-03-16 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2006.
"Evaluating Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Self-Selection, Counterfactuals and Average Treatment Effects,"
EPRU Working Paper Series
06-04, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2010. "Evaluating foreign exchange market intervention: Self-selection, counterfactuals and average treatment effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 570-584, April.
- Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2006. "Evaluating Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Self-Selection, Counterfactuals and Average Treatment Effects," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt02c028gr, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Rasmus Fatum & Michael M. Hutchison, 2008. "Evaluating Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Self-selection, Counterfactuals and Average Treatment Effects," Working Papers 022008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2006. "Evaluating Foreign Exchange Market Intervention: Self-Selection, Counterfactuals and Average Treatment Effects," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt02c028gr, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Takatoshi Ito, 2007. "Myths and reality of foreign exchange interventions: an application to Japan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 133-154.
- Kim, Suk-Joong & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2006. "Interventions in the Yen-dollar spot market: A story of price, volatility and volume," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3191-3214, November.
- Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001.
"Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
- Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April.
- Paolo Vitale, 2007. "An assessment of some open issues in the analysis of foreign exchange intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 155-170.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Atsuko SUZUKI).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.