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Speculative noise trading and manipulation in the foreign exchange market

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  • Vitale, Paolo

Abstract

We investigate the possibility that in the foreign exchange market an uninformed speculator finds it convenient to trade on noise in order to gain an infromational advantage she can exploit in future. In a two-period model, we analyze the trade-off she faces between the cost of the "informational investment" and the profits this brings about. Our results give a possible explanation for the large volume of noise trading present in the foreign exchange market.
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  • Vitale, Paolo, 2000. "Speculative noise trading and manipulation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 689-712, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:19:y:2000:i:5:p:689-712
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chen, Jing & Dong, Yizhe & Hou, Wenxuan & McMillan, David G., 2018. "Does feedback trading drive returns of cross-listed shares?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 179-199.
    3. Imran Riaz Malik, Attaullah Shah, 2019. "Impact of Single Stock Futures on Feedback Trading, Trading Volume and Volatility: A Modified Approach," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 4(2), pages 15-29, October.
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    5. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2020. "Efectul Turn-of-the-Year pe piaţa valutară din România [The Turn-of-the-Year Effect in the Romanian foreign exchange market]," MPRA Paper 99365, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Mar 2020.
    6. Sofia Johan, 2008. "Global Market Surveillance," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 454-506.
    7. Guo, Ming & Li, Zhan & Tu, Zhiyong, 2012. "A unique “T+1 trading rule” in China: Theory and evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 575-583.
    8. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Evans, Martin D.D., 2018. "Forex trading and the WMR Fix," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 233-247.
    10. Cumming, Douglas & Johan, Sofia & Li, Dan, 2011. "Exchange trading rules and stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 651-671, March.
    11. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    12. Lee, Eun Jung & Eom, Kyong Shik & Park, Kyung Suh, 2013. "Microstructure-based manipulation: Strategic behavior and performance of spoofing traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 227-252.
    13. Ping-Chen Tsai & Chi-Ming Tsai, 2021. "Estimating the proportion of informed and speculative traders in financial markets: evidence from exchange rate," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(3), pages 443-470, July.
    14. Martin Evans, 2014. "Forex Trading and the WMR Fix," Working Papers gueconwpa~14-14-03, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    15. Dumitriu Ramona & Stefanescu Razvan, 2021. "TOQ Effects on the Romanian Foreign Exchange Market," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 246-253.
    16. Shino Takayama, 2013. "Price Manipulation, Dynamic Informed Trading and Tame Equilibria: Theory and Computation," Discussion Papers Series 492, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    17. Carol Osler & Alasdair Turnbull, 2016. "Dealer Trading at the Fix," Working Papers 101R, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School, revised Jun 2017.
    18. Paolo Vitale, 2007. "An assessment of some open issues in the analysis of foreign exchange intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 155-170.
    19. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2005. "Feedback trading and autocorrelation interactions in the foreign exchange market: Further evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 811-827, September.
    20. Takayama, Shino, 2021. "Price manipulation, dynamic informed trading, and the uniqueness of equilibrium in sequential trading," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    21. Holtfort, Thomas & Horsch, Andreas & Schwarz, Joachim, 2022. "Economic, technological and social drivers of cryptocurrency market evolution and its managerial impact," Freiberg Working Papers 2022/01, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    22. Shino Takayama, 2018. "Price Manipulation, Dynamic Informed Trading and Tame Equilibria: Theory and Computation," Discussion Papers Series 603, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    23. Andreas Röthig, 2009. "Microeconomic Risk Management and Macroeconomic Stability," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-642-01565-6, December.
    24. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2005. "Information Leakage and Market Efficiency," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 417-457.
    25. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Critical Appraisal of Recent Developments in the Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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