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The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalisists

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  • Jeffrey A. Frankel
  • Kenneth A. Froot

Abstract

Several recent developments have inspired us to consider a non-standard model of the dollar as a speculative bubble without the constraint of fully rational expectations: (1) the dollar continued to rise in 1984 after real interest rate differentials and other fundamentals began moving the wrong way; (2) the results of market efficiency tests imply, that the rationally expected rate of dollar depreciation has been less than the forward discount; (3) Krugman-Marris current account calculations suggest that the rationally expected rate of depreciation is greater than the forward discount; (4) survey data show an expected rate of depreciation that is also greater than the forward discount; (5) the hypothesis of a "safe-haven" shift into U.S. assets and a decrease in the U.S. risk premium, which would explain some of the foregoing, is contradicted by a decline in the differential between off shore interest rates (covered) and U.S. interest rates. Our model features three classes of actors: fundamentalists, chartists and portfolio managers. Fundamentalists forecast a depreciation of the dollar based on an overshooting model that would be rational if there were no chartists. Chartists extrapolate recent trends based on an information set that includes no fundamentals. Portfolio managers take positions in the market, and thus determine the exchange rate, based on expectations that area weighted average of the fundamentalists and chartists. The first stage of the dollar appreciation after 1980 is explained by increases in real interest differentials. The second stage is explained by the endogenous takeoff of a speculative bubble when the fundamentalists have mis-forecast for so long that they have lost credibility. In 1985, the dollar may have entered a third stage in which an ever-worsening current account deficit begins a reversal of the bubble.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1854.

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Date of creation: Dec 1987
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1854

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  1. Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Is the Strong Dollar Sustainable?," NBER Working Papers 1644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Robert J. Hodrick & Sanjay Srivastava, 1983. "An Investigation of Risk and Return in Forward Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 1180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kouri, Pentti J K, 1976. " The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Payments in the Short Run and in the Long Run: A Monetary Approach," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 280-304.
  4. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  5. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
  6. Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-84, April.
  7. Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "Floating Exchange Rates: Experience and Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 16(2), pages 369-464.
  8. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-48.
  9. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1980. "The Role of Trade Flows in Exchange Rate Determination: A Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1148-58, December.
  10. Frankel, Jeffrey & Engel, Charles M., 1984. "Do asset-demand functions optimize over the mean and variance of real returns? A six-currency test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 309-323, November.
  11. McCormick, Frank, 1979. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits? Comment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 411-17, April.
  12. Ralph Tryon, 1979. "Testing for rational expectations in foreign exchange markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 139, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1985. "International Interest-Rate and Price-Level Linkages Under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 0921, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  16. Longworth, David, 1981. "Testing the Efficiency of the Canadian-U.S. Exchange Market under the Assumption of no Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 43-49, March.
  17. Takatoshi Ito, 1987. "Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity," NBER Working Papers 1187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Frank McCormick, 1979. "Covered-interest arbitrage: unexploited profits: comment," International Finance Discussion Papers 132, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michel Beine & Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Hélène Colas, 2003. "Imitation Amongst Exchange-Rate Forecasters: Evidence from Survey Data," Working Papers 2003-08, CEPII research center.
  2. Juann H. Hung, 1995. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Research Paper 9515, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas, 2007. "A Noise Trader Model As A Generator Of Apparent Financial Power Laws And Long Memory," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 80-101, November.
  4. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Sophie Larribeau & Ronald MacDonald, 1999. "Models of Exchange Rate Expectations: Heterogeneous Evidence from Panel Data," Working Papers 1999-03, CEPII research center.
  5. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas, 2006. "A minimal noise trader model with realistic time series properties," Economics Working Papers 2006,11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

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