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Secrecy of Monetary Policy and the Variability of Interest Rates

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Tabellini, Guido

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Abstract

This paper addresses the issue of how secrecy of the short-run monetary policy objectives affects the behavior of the federal-funds rate. Secrecy is modeled by assuming that financial markets are unc ertain about a parameter in the Federal Reserve reaction function. Th ey learn over time about this parameter, by means of Bayes rule, and this learning process is reflected in the time path of interest rates and of reserve aggregates. The main result of the paper is that secr ecy tends to increase the volatility of the funds rate and of reserve aggregates. Copyright 1987 by Ohio State University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 19 (1987)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 425-36
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:19:y:1987:i:4:p:425-36

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Cyert, Richard M & DeGroot, Morris H, 1974. "Rational Expectations and Bayesian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 521-36, May/June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Tabellini, Guido, 1988. "Learning and the volatility of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 243-250, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Dotsey, 1985. "Monetary policy, secrecy, and federal funds rate behavior," Working Paper 85-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  4. repec:fip:fedreq:y:1986:i:jan:p:11-28:n:v.72no.1 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bennett T. McCallum, 1983. "On Non-Uniqueness in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt at Perspective," NBER Working Papers 0684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Roley, V Vance & Walsh, Carl E, 1985. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1011-39, Supp.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Nichols, Donald A & Small, David H & Webster, Charles E, Jr, 1983. "Why Interest Rates Rise When an Unexpectedly Large Money Stock Is Announced," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 383-88, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Menno Middeldorp & Clemens Kool & Stephanie Rosenkranz, 2007. "Listening Without Understanding," Working Papers 07-19, Utrecht School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bernhard Winkler, 2000. "Which kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making," Working Paper Series 26, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. TUYSUZ, Sukriye, 2007. "Central Bank transparency and the U.S. interest rates level and volatility response to U.S. news," MPRA Paper 5217, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  4. Nathan Balke & Joseph H. Haslag, 1989. "Asymmetric information and the role of FED watching," Research Paper 8903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andrew G Haldane & Vicky Read, . "Monetary policy surprises and the yield curve," Bank of England working papers 106, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  6. Joseph H. Haslag, 2001. "On Fed watching and central bank transparency in an overlapping generations model," Working Papers 00-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  7. Muller, P. & M. Zelmer, 1999. "Greater Transparency in Monetary Policy: Impact on Financial Markets," Technical Reports 86, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Aleksandar Murdzhev & Marc Tomljanovich, 2006. "What Color is Alan Greenspan's Tie? How Central Bank Policy Announcements Have Changed Financial Markets," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 571-593, Fall. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrew G Haldane, 1997. "Designing Inflation Targets," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  10. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Geraats, Petra M, 2002. "How Transparent are Central Banks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & van der Cruijsen, Carin A B, 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 6070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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