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Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements

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  • V. Vance Roley
  • Carl E. Walsh

Abstract

This paper examines the response of the term structure of interest rates to weekly money announcements. Estimated responses for both the pre- and post-October 1979 periods are first presented. Then, two competing hypotheses involving the policy anticipations and expected inflation effects are formally specified and compared to the estimated responses.Both hypotheses are found to be consistent with the responses, but they have sharply different implications about the Federal Reserve's short-run monetary policy. The expected inflation hypothesis implies that weekly money surprises should have persistent effects on the level of the money stock, reflecting shifts in the Federal Reserve's long-run target. In contrast, the policy anticipations hypothesis implies that the effectof money surprises should diminish over time, reflecting the Federal Reserve's desire to offset deviations from target. Additional empirical results reported in the paper support this latter description of the money stock process.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 1181.

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Date of creation: Aug 1983
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Publication status: published as Roley, V. Vance and Carl E. Walsh. "Monetary Policy Regimes, Expected Inflation, and the Response of Interest Rates to Money Announcements." Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 100, Supplement, (1985), pp. 1011-1039.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1181

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  1. Engel, Charles & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1982. "Why money announcements move interest rates: an answer from the foreign exchange market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 6, pages 1-36.
  2. Nichols, Donald A & Small, David H & Webster, Charles E, Jr, 1983. "Why Interest Rates Rise When an Unexpectedly Large Money Stock Is Announced," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 383-88, June.
  3. Roley, V Vance, 1983. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 344-54, August.
  4. V. Vance Roley & Rick Troll, 1983. "The impact of new economic information on the volatility of short-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Feb, pages 3-15.
  5. Grossman, Jacob, 1981. "The "Rationality" of Money Supply Expectations and the Short-Run Response of Interest Rates to Monetary Surprises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 409-24, November.
  6. Walsh, Carl E, 1984. "Interest Rate Volatility and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 133-50, May.
  7. Nelson, Charles R & Schwert, G William, 1977. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: On Testing the Hypothesis That the Real Rate of Interest is Constant," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 478-86, June.
  8. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "Weekly money supply announcements and the volatility of short-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Apr, pages 3-15.
  9. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-82, June.
  10. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. McCallum, Bennett T & Hoehn, James G, 1983. "Instrument Choice for Money Stock Control with Contemporaneous and Lagged Reserve Requirements: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(1), pages 96-101, February.
  12. Cornell, Bradford, 1983. "Money Supply Announcements and Interest Rates: Another View," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-23, January.
  13. John H. Makin, 1982. "Effects of Inflation Control Programs on Expected Real Interest Rates (Effets exercés par les programmes de lutte contre l'inflation sur les taux d'intérêt réels prévus) (Efectos de los," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 29(2), pages 204-232, June.
  14. Gibbons, Michael R & Hess, Patrick, 1981. "Day of the Week Effects and Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 579-96, October.
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