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Persistent profitability of technical analysis on foreign exchange markets?

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Author Info

  • L. MENKHOFF

    (University of Freiburg)

  • M. SCHLUMBERGER

    (University of Freiburg)

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    Abstract

    The effect of technical analyses on the performance of subsequent policies and actions in the foreign exchange markets is analysed using three cases. Results show that use of technical analyses is persistently profitable. Participants, however, tend to view short-term market risk as important and thus decide to forego some of the rules derived from technical analysis. This observation does not negate the theory on efficient learning.

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    File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/10506/10392
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Banca Nazionale del Lavoro in its journal Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review.

    Volume (Year): 48 (1995)
    Issue (Month): 193 ()
    Pages: 189-215

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    Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlqrr:1995:25

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    References

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    1. Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Economics Working Papers 8874, University of California at Berkeley.
    2. Marco Tronzano, 1992. "Efficiency in German and Japanese foreign exchange markets: Evidence from cointegration techniques," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 1-20, March.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Stephan Schulmeister, 1988. "Currency speculation and dollar fluctuations," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 41(167), pages 343-365.
    5. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
    6. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharftstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1992. " Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1461-84, September.
    7. Ronald Macdonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 1-57, March.
    8. Cornell, W Bradford & Dietrich, J Kimball, 1978. "The Efficiency of the Market for Foreign Exchange under Floating Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 111-20, February.
    9. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-85, May.
    11. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March.
    12. Levich, Richard M, 1989. "Is the Foreign Exchange Market Efficient?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 40-60, Autumn.
    13. Logue, Dennis E. & Sweeney, Richard James & Willett, Thomas D., 1978. "Speculative behavior of foreign exchange rates during the current float," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 159-174, May.
    14. De Grauwe, Paul & Decupere, Danny, 1992. "Psychological Barriers in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 621, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Taylor, Stephen J, 1992. "Rewards Available to Currency Futures Speculators: Compensation for Risk or Evidence of Inefficient Pricing?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 105-16, Supplemen.
    16. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
    17. Riccardo Curcio & Charles Goodhart, 1992. "When Support/Resistance Levels are Broken, Can Profits be Made? Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," FMG Discussion Papers dp142, Financial Markets Group.
    18. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
    19. Michael P. Leahy, 1989. "The profitability of U.S. intervention," International Finance Discussion Papers 343, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-69, December.
    21. Logue, Dennis E & Sweeney, Richard James, 1977. "'White-Noise' in Imperfect Markets: The Case of the Franc/Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 761-68, June.
    22. Goodman, Stephen H, 1979. "Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques: Implications for Business and Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 415-27, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
    2. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    3. Stephan Schulmeister, 2008. "Profitability of Technical Stock Trading: Has it Moved from Daily to Intraday Data?," WIFO Working Papers 323, WIFO.
    4. Carol Osler, 2000. "Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 53-68.
    5. Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "The Interaction between Technical Currency Trading and Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Finance 0512033, EconWPA.
    6. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market," WIFO Working Papers 291, WIFO.
    7. Vitale, P., 1997. "Speculative Noise Trading and Manipulation in the Foreign Exchange Market," Economics Working Papers eco97/23, European University Institute.
    8. Michael Frenkel & Georg Stadtmann, 2004. "Trading Rule Profitability and Central Bank Interventions in the Dollar-Deutschmark Market," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 224(6), pages 653-672, November.

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