Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Persistent profitability of technical analysis on foreign exchange markets?

Contents:

Author Info

  • L. MENKHOFF

    (University of Freiburg)

  • M. SCHLUMBERGER

    (University of Freiburg)

Abstract

The effect of technical analyses on the performance of subsequent policies and actions in the foreign exchange markets is analysed using three cases. Results show that use of technical analyses is persistently profitable. Participants, however, tend to view short-term market risk as important and thus decide to forego some of the rules derived from technical analysis. This observation does not negate the theory on efficient learning.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/10506/10392
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Banca Nazionale del Lavoro in its journal Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): 48 (1995)
Issue (Month): 193 ()
Pages: 189-215

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlqrr:1995:25

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.economiacivile.it

Order Information:
Web: http://www.economiacivile.it

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. " Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-82, March.
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  4. Marco Tronzano, 1992. "Efficiency in German and Japanese foreign exchange markets: Evidence from cointegration techniques," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 1-20, March.
  5. Stephan Schulmeister, 1988. "Currency speculation and dollar fluctuations," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 41(167), pages 343-365.
  6. Taylor, Stephen J, 1992. "Rewards Available to Currency Futures Speculators: Compensation for Risk or Evidence of Inefficient Pricing?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 105-16, Supplemen.
  7. Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Economics Working Papers 8874, University of California at Berkeley.
  8. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Hesse, Thomas, 1993. "Central Bank Forex internvention assessed in continous time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 368-389, August.
  9. Riccardo Curcio & Charles Goodhart, 1992. "When Support/Resistance Levels are Broken, Can Profits be Made? Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," FMG Discussion Papers dp142, Financial Markets Group.
  10. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
  11. Kenneth A. Froot & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 1990. "Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," NBER Working Papers 3250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Michael P. Leahy, 1989. "The profitability of U.S. intervention," International Finance Discussion Papers 343, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1990. "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 181-85, May.
  14. Logue, Dennis E. & Sweeney, Richard James & Willett, Thomas D., 1978. "Speculative behavior of foreign exchange rates during the current float," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 159-174, May.
  15. Levich, Richard M, 1989. "Is the Foreign Exchange Market Efficient?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 40-60, Autumn.
  16. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-69, December.
  17. Cornell, W Bradford & Dietrich, J Kimball, 1978. "The Efficiency of the Market for Foreign Exchange under Floating Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 111-20, February.
  18. Logue, Dennis E & Sweeney, Richard James, 1977. "'White-Noise' in Imperfect Markets: The Case of the Franc/Dollar Exchange Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(3), pages 761-68, June.
  19. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 91/62, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Goodman, Stephen H, 1979. "Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques: Implications for Business and Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 415-27, May.
  21. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
  22. De Grauwe, Paul & Decupere, Danny, 1992. "Psychological Barriers in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 621, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Carol Osler, 2000. "Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 53-68.
  2. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
  3. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2009. "Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
  4. Vitale, Paolo, 2000. "Speculative noise trading and manipulation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 689-712, October.
  5. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market," WIFO Working Papers 291, WIFO.
  6. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
  7. Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "The Interaction between Technical Currency Trading and Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Finance 0512033, EconWPA.
  8. Michael Frenkel & Georg Stadtmann, 2004. "Trading Rule Profitability and Central Bank Interventions in the Dollar-Deutschmark Market," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 224(6), pages 653-672, November.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:psl:bnlqrr:1995:25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carlo D'Ippoliti).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.