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When Is It Optimal to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate?

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Author Info
Sergio Rebelo
Carlos A. Vegh

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Abstract

The influential Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model of balance of payment crises assumes that a fixed exchange rate is abandoned if and only if international reserves reach a critical threshold value. From a positive standpoint, the KFG rule is at odds with many episodes in which the central bank has plenty of international reserves at the time of abandonment. We study the optimal exit policy and show that, from a normative standpoint, the KFG rule is generally suboptimal. We consider a model in which the fixed exchange rate regime has become unsustainable due to an unexpected increase in government spending. We show that, when there are no exit costs, it is optimal to abandon immediately. When there are exit costs, the optimal abandonment time is a decreasing function of the size of the fiscal shock. For large fiscal shocks, immediate abandonment is optimal. Our model is consistent with evidence suggesting that many countries exit fixed exchange rate regimes with still plenty of international reserves in the central bank's vault.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12793.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12793

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of Currency Crises with Self-fulfilling Features," CEPR Discussion Papers 1315, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1987. "Balance of Payments Crises in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 19-32, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Buiter, Willem H., 1987. "Borrowing to defend the exchange rate and the timing and magnitude of speculative attacks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3-4), pages 221-239, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M. & Kramer, Charles, 1996. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: Another linear example," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 223-234, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Maurice Obstfeld, 1986. "Speculative Attack and the External Constraint in a Maximizing Model of the Balance of Payments," NBER Working Papers 1437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Rebelo, Sergio & Xie, Danyang, 1999. "On the optimality of interest rate smoothing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 263-282, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  12. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Disinflation and Fiscal Reform: A Neoclassical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Flood, Robert P. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2005. "An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 471-484, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Drazen, Allan & Helpman, Elhanan, 1987. "Stabilization with Exchange Rate Management," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 835-55, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2004. "Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 31-63, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cunha, Alexandre B., 2002. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy, Optimal Incomplete Taxation and Business Cycles," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_16, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2007. "Parametric and Non-parametric Approaches to Exits from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," HEI Working Papers 14-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies. [Downloadable!]
  3. Asici, Ahmet Atil & Ivanova, Nadezhda & Wyplosz, Charles, 2005. "How to Exit from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 5141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Eduardo J. J. Ganapolsky, 2004. "Optimal Fear of Floating: The Role of Currency Mismatches and Fiscal Constraints," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 85, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. Eduardo J.J. Ganapolsky, 2003. "Optimal fear of floating: the role of currency mismatches and fiscal constraints," Working Paper 2003-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  6. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2005. "Output Costs, Currency Crises, and Interest Rate Defense of a Peg," NBER Working Papers 11791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Diego Valderrama & Mark M. Spiegel, 2003. "Currency boards, dollarized liabilities, and monetary policy credibility," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Cunha, Alexandre B., 2002. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy and Business Cycles," Ibmec Working Papers wpe_19, Ibmec Working Paper, Ibmec São Paulo. [Downloadable!]
  9. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2003. "Government Finance in the Wake of Currency Crises," RCER Working Papers 501, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Post, Erik, 2007. "Macroeconomic imbalances and exchange rate regime shifts," Working Paper Series 2007:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. PIERRE-RICHARD AGÉNOR, 2004. "Orderly exits from adjustable pegs and exchange rate bands," Journal of Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 83-108, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Eduardo J.J. Ganapolsky, 2003. "Reserve requirements, bank runs, and optimal policies in small open economies," Working Paper 2003-39, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ahmet Asici & Charles Wyplosz, 2003. "The Art of Gracefully Exiting a Peg," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 211–228. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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