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When Is It Optimal to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate?

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  • Sergio Rebelo
  • Carlos A. Vegh

Abstract

The influential Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model of balance of payment crises assumes that a fixed exchange rate is abandoned if and only if international reserves reach a critical threshold value. From a positive standpoint, the KFG rule is at odds with many episodes in which the central bank has plenty of international reserves at the time of abandonment. We study the optimal exit policy and show that, from a normative standpoint, the KFG rule is generally suboptimal. We consider a model in which the fixed exchange rate regime has become unsustainable due to an unexpected increase in government spending. We show that, when there are no exit costs, it is optimal to abandon immediately. When there are exit costs, the optimal abandonment time is a decreasing function of the size of the fiscal shock. For large fiscal shocks, immediate abandonment is optimal. Our model is consistent with evidence suggesting that many countries exit fixed exchange rate regimes with still plenty of international reserves in the central bank's vault.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12793.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12793

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  1. Michael M Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2002. "Output Costs of Currency and Balance of Payments Crises in Emerging Markets," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2-3), pages 27-44, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2007. "Parametric and Non-parametric Approaches to Exits from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," IHEID Working Papers 14-2007, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  2. Ahmet Atil Asici & Nadezhda Ivanova & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "How to exit from fixed exchange rate regimes?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 219-246.
  3. Eduardo J.J. Ganapolsky, 2003. "Optimal fear of floating: the role of currency mismatches and fiscal constraints," Working Paper 2003-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. Diego Valderrama & Mark M. Spiegel, 2003. "Currency boards, dollarized liabilities, and monetary policy credibility," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2003-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2003. "Government Finance in the Wake of Currency Crises," RCER Working Papers 501, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Post, Erik, 2007. "Macroeconomic imbalances and exchange rate regime shifts," Working Paper Series 2007:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  7. Eduardo J.J. Ganapolsky, 2003. "Reserve requirements, bank runs, and optimal policies in small open economies," Working Paper 2003-39, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  8. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Végh, 2007. "Output Costs, Currency Crises and Interest Rate Defence of a Peg," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(516), pages 216-239, 01.
  9. Asici, Ahmet & Wyplosz, Charles, 2003. "The Art of Gracefully Exiting a Peg," MPRA Paper 4432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Eduardo J. J. Ganapolsky, 2004. "Optimal Fear of Floating: The Role of Currency Mismatches and Fiscal Constraints," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 85, Econometric Society.
  11. Pierre-Richard Agenor, 2004. "Orderly exits from adjustable pegs and exchange rate bands," Journal of Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 83-108.

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