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Output Costs, Currency Crises and Interest Rate Defence of a Peg

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Author Info
Amartya Lahiri
Carlos A. Végh

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Abstract

Central banks typically raise short-term interest rates to defend currency pegs. Higher interest rates, however, often lead to a credit crunch and an output contraction. We model this trade-off in an optimising, first-generation model in which the crisis may be delayed but is ultimately inevitable. We show that higher interest rates may delay the crisis, but raising interest rates beyond a certain point may actually bring forward the crisis due to the large negative output effect. The optimal interest rate defence involves setting high interest rates (relative to the no defence case) both before and at the moment of the crisis. Copyright 2007 The Author(s). Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2007.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2007.02008.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 117 (2007)
Issue (Month): 516 (01)
Pages: 216-239
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:117:y:2007:i:516:p:216-239

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Robert Dekle & Cheng Hsiao & Siyan Wang, 1999. "Interest rate stabilization of exchange rates and contagion in the Asian crisis countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
  2. Kraay, Aart, 2003. "Do high interest rates defend currencies during speculative attacks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 297-321, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Sebastian Edwards & Carlos A. Vegh, 1997. "Banks and Macroeconomics Disturbances under Predetermined Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno & Mark Spiegel, 2001. "Financial crises in emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. 23. [Downloadable!]
  7. Easterly, William R & Mauro, Paolo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Money Demand and Seigniorage-Maximizing Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 583-603, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 2006. "When Is It Optimal to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate?," NBER Working Papers 12793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Allan Drazen, 2003. "Interest Rate Defense against Speculative Attack as a Signal. A Primer," NBER Chapters, in: Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 37-60 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  10. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 1999. "Financial sector inefficiencies and coordination failures : implications for crisis management," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2185, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  12. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Correia, I. & Rabelo, S. & Naves, J.C., 1994. "Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," RCER Working Papers 382, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  14. Flood, Robert P. & Jeanne, Olivier, 2005. "An interest rate defense of a fixed exchange rate?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 471-484, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1998. "Prospective deficits and the Asian currency crisis," Working Paper Series WP-98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1151-1193. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tijmen R. Daniels & Henk Jager & Franc Klaassen, 2008. "Defending against Speculative Attacks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-090/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 06 Apr 2009. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Goderis, B.V.G., 2007. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates During Currency Crises: The Role of Debt, Institutions and Financial Openness," Discussion Paper 2007-18, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. repec:bep:macadv:v:7:y:2007:i:1:p:1593-1593 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy & Lidan Wang, 2007. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops," Working Papers 200724, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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