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Discrete Devaluations and Multiple Equilibria in a First Generation Model of Currency Crises

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Author Info
Fernando A. Broner

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Abstract

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency crises should be predictable and associated with small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not robust to the inclusion of private information. In particular, this paper analyzes a generalization of the Krugman-Flood-Garber (KFG) model, that relaxes the assumption that all consumers are perfectly informed about the level of fundamentals. In this environment, the KFG equilibrium of zero devaluation is only one of many possible equilibria. In all the other equilibria, the lack of perfect information makes the peg last past the point at which the shadow exchange rate equals it, giving rise to unpredictable and discrete devaluations

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2004 Meeting Papers with number 264.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed004:264

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Related research
Keywords: Currency crises; ¯rst generation models; timing; private information; learning;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F - International Economics

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  1. Morris, S & Song Shin, H, 1996. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," Economics Papers 126, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    Other versions:
  2. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Schmukler, Sergio L, 2000. "Country Funds and Asymmetric Information," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 177-95, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Fernando Broner, 1999. "On the Timing of Balance of Payments Crises: Disaggregated Information and Interest Rate Policy," Economics Working Papers 840, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2002. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Cavallari, Lilia & Corsetti, Giancarlo, 2000. "Shadow rates and multiple equilibria in the theory of currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 275-286, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "Financial Crises as Herds: Overturning the Critiques," NBER Working Papers 9658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Christophe Chamley, 2003. "Dynamic Speculative Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 603-621, June. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "Disinflation and Fiscal Reform: A Neoclassical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Miller, Merton, 1998. "Asian financial crisis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 355-358, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tijmen Daniëls & Henk Jager & Franc Klaassen, 2009. "Defending Against Speculative Attacks," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-011, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Bernardo Guimaraes, 2008. "Vulnerability of Currency Pegs: Evidence from Brazil," CEP Discussion Papers dp0871, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  3. Gara Minguez-Afonso, 2007. "Imperfect Common Knowledge in First-Generation Models of Currency Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 81-112, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Guimarães, Bernardo, 2007. "Currency Crisis Triggers: Sunspots or Thresholds?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6487, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Celine Rochon, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," OFRC Working Papers Series 2006fe03, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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