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Defending Against Speculative Attacks

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Author Info

  • Tijmen Daniëls
  • Henk Jager
  • Franc Klaassen

Abstract

While virtually all currency crisismodels recognise that the fate of a currency peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it, they seldom model how this is done. We incorporate themechanics of speculation and the interest rate defence against it in the model ofMorris and Shin (American Economic Review 88, 1998). Our model captures that the interest rate defence reduces speculators’ profits and thus postpones the crisis. It predicts that well before the fall of a currency interest rates are increased to offset the buildup of exchange market pressure, and this then unravels in a sharp depreciation. This pattern is at odds with predictions of standard models, but we show that it fits well with reality.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2009-011.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2009-011

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Keywords: Exchange Market Pressure; Currency Crisis; Interest Rate Defence; Global Game;

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References

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  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Amil Dasgupta & Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Does One Soros Make a Difference? A Theory of Currency Crises with Large and Small Traders," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 87-113, 01.
  2. Christian Hellwig & Arijit Mukherji & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2005. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Fernando A. Broner, 2004. "Discrete Devaluations and Multiple Equilibria in a First Generation Model of Currency Crises," 2004 Meeting Papers 264, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Benedikt Goderis & Vasso P. Ioannidou, 2006. "Do High Interest Rates Defend Currencies During Speculative Attacks? New Evidence," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2006-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Roland Strausz, 2010. "The Political Economy of Regulatory Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 2953, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Michal Grajek & Lars-Hendrik Röller, 2009. "Regulation and Investment in Network Industries: Evidence from European Telecoms," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-09-004, ESMT European School of Management and Technology.
  3. Barbara Choroś & Wolfgang Härdle & Ostap Okhrin, 2009. "CDO and HAC," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-038, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Maria Grith & Wolfgang Härdle & Juhyun Park, 2009. "Shape invariant modelling pricing kernels and risk aversion," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-041, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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