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Macroeconomic imbalances and exchange rate regime shifts

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  • Post, Erik

    ()
    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

This paper uses a dynamic stochastic rational expectations model of a small open economy to shed some light on factors determining exits from a fixed to a flexible exchange rate regime. Exits are in the model determined by a concern for macroeconomic stabilization. If cost-push shocks are important relative to demand shocks exits should occur more likely in times of low consumption and output, high interest rates, negative asset holdings, current account deficits, high inflation and high domestic prices. If the policy maker is more sensitive to negative rather than positive output deviations the probability of exits increases overall and is tilted toward exits with accompanying depreciation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Uppsala University, Department of Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number 2007:4.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 16 Jan 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2007_004

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, Uppsala University, P. O. Box 513, SE-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden
Phone: + 46 18 471 25 00
Fax: + 46 18 471 14 78
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Web page: http://www.nek.uu.se/
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Keywords: exchange rates; exchange rate regimes; rational expectations model;

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References

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  1. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Bensaid, B.B. & Jeanne, O., 1995. "The Instability of Fixed Exchange Rate Systems when Raising the Nominal Interest Rate is Costly," Papers 9536, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
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  8. Inci Ötker & Rupa Duttagupta, 2003. "Exits From Pegged Regimes," IMF Working Papers 03/147, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Sören Blomquist & Vidar Christiansen & Luca Micheletto, 2008. "Public Provision of Private Goods and Nondistortionary Marginal Tax Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 2303, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Ohlsson, Henry, 2011. "The legacy of the Swedish gift and inheritance tax, 1884–2004," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 539-569, December.

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