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The Art of Gracefully Exiting a Peg

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  • Ahmet Asici

    (Graduate Institute of International Studies)

  • Charles Wyplosz

    (Graduate Institute of International Studies and CEPR)

Abstract

The wave of liberalization of capital movements, which swept Europe in the 1980s and the emerging market countries in the 1990s, has given rise to the two-corner strategy. According to this view only two exchange rate regimes are sustainable: hard pegs and fully flexible rates. Soft pegs in the middle are seen as doomed, open to irresistible and unpredictable speculative attacks and historical evidence shows clearly that increasing number of countries have exited the soft middle ground, mostly towards the flexible end of the spectrum. However, not all the exits from hard pegs to flexible arrangements are happy. Most countries hesitate to leave the peg when it is working properly, and consider exit option only when they are facing speculative pressure, and then it often is too late. This paper aims to analyze the factors contributing to peaceful exits, that is exiting without a significant loss in the value of the domestic currency. It seeks to find conditions that need to be satisfied to ensure an exit without significant economic costs. Historical record of exchange rate classification comes from Reinhart and Rogoff's path-breaking study on this subject, where they classified regimes on the basis of observed, de facto, currency movements rather than the announced, de jure, official rates. Some interesting results we have found may be put as follows: Cold-blooded exits enacted when the macroeconomic conditions are favorable, that is countries planning to leave a peg are advised to do it when it is least necessary and least expected. Another surprising result is that, efficient and deep financial markets do not help with exits. Countries encouraged to exit pegs before they fully liberalize their financial account and deepen their markets. The study covers the period 1975-2001. Our choice criteria provide 55 cases of exits, 27 of which is peaceful and the rest 28 cases troubled ones. We estimate non-structural probit models with monthly and annual data.
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Suggested Citation

  • Ahmet Asici & Charles Wyplosz, 2003. "The Art of Gracefully Exiting a Peg," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 211-228.
    • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:34:y:2003:i:3:p:211-228
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Trudel, 2005. "Effects of Exchange Rate Regime on IMF Program Participation," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 22(6), pages 919-936, November.
    2. Emilija Beker, 2006. "Exchange rate arrangements from extreme to normal," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 53(1), pages 31-49, March.
    3. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2010. "Parametric and non-parametric approaches to exits from fixed exchange rate regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 381-406.
    4. Bersch, Julia & Klüh, Ulrich H., 2007. "When countries do not do what they say: Systematic discrepancies between exchange rate regime announcements and de facto policies," Discussion Papers in Economics 2072, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    5. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2011. "The role of financial development in exchange rate regime choices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 641-659, June.
    6. Ahmet Atil Asici & Nadezhda Ivanova & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "How to exit from fixed exchange rate regimes?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 219-246.
    7. Hans Genberg & Alexander K. Swoboda, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Does What Countries Say Matter?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 1-8.
    8. S bastien W lti, 2005. "The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes," Trinity Economics Papers 2000518, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    9. Pierre-Richard Agenor, 2004. "Orderly exits from adjustable pegs and exchange rate bands," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 83-108.
    10. Michael Frömmel, 2010. "Volatility Regimes in Central and Eastern European Countries’ Exchange Rates," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(1), pages 2-21, February.
    11. Mrs. Gilda C Fernandez & Mr. Cem Karacadag & Rupa Duttagupta, 2004. "From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving towards Exchange Rate Flexibility," IMF Working Papers 2004/126, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Ms. Enrica Detragiache & Mr. Eisuke Okada & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2005. "Exits from Heavily Managed Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 2005/039, International Monetary Fund.
    13. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep8 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Internal and external shocks in Hong Kong: Empirical evidence and policy options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-75, January.
    15. Sean Barrett, 2005. "Risk Equalisation and Competition in the Irish Health Insurance Market," Trinity Economics Papers 200058, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    16. Sfia, Mohamed Daly, 2007. "Régimes de change: Le chemin vers la flexibilité," MPRA Paper 4085, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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