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Fiscal Trends and Self-Fulfilling Crises Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Antonio Doblas-Madrid
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This paper develops a second-generation currency crisis model with endogenously changing fundamentals. Previous second-generation models are static, e.g. Obstfeld (1994), or dynamic with exogenous paths of fundamentals, e.g. Obstfeld (1986). In our model, the government weighs the disutility of making fundamentals consistent with a peg against a penalty for floating. If the former dominates, the government runs expansionary policies, precipitating a crisis. For some parameters, self-fulfilling speculation affects when the crisis happens, but not whether it happens. For other values, there are "purely self-fulfilling" crises, where a peg that could have survived forever collapses if attacked in the first few periods. Copyright © 2009 The Author. Journal compilation © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2009.
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of International Economics .
Volume (Year): 17 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 187-204
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Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:17:y:2009:i:1:p:187-204Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576
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This page was last updated on 2009-10-26.
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