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Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes

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  • MASSON, Paul
  • RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.

Abstract

This paper studies the transition between exchange rate regimes using a Markov chain model with time-varying transition probabilities. The probabilities are parameterized as nonlinear functions of variables suggested by the currency crisis and optimal currency area literature. Results using annual data indicate that inflation, and to a lesser extent, output growth and trade openness help explain the exchange rate regime transition dynamics.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/510
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 2003-21.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2003-21

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Keywords: Exchange rates; hollowing out hythesis; regime change; Markov chains; gs; floating;

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References

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  1. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," NBER Working Papers 5874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1998. "Prospective deficits and the Asian currency crisis," Working Paper Series WP-98-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  4. Kremer, Michael & Onatski, Alexei & Stock, James, 2001. "Searching for prosperity," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 275-303, December.
  5. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. Masson,Paul R. & Taylor,Mark P. (ed.), 1993. "Policy Issues in the Operation of Currency Unions," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521434553, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoit Coeuré, 2002. "The Survival of Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers 2002-07, CEPII research center.
  2. Bird, Graham & Rowlands, Dane, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing and Emerging Economies and the Incidence of IMF Programs," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1839-1848, December.
  3. Sean Barrett, 2005. "Risk Equalisation and Competition in the Irish Health Insurance Market," Trinity Economics Papers 200058, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  4. Ahmed Atil Asici, 2008. "Parametric and Non-Parametric Approaches to Exits from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers 401, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2008.
  5. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 70-92, May.
  6. Filacek, Jan & Horvath, Roman & Skorepa, Michal, 2006. "Monetary Policy before Euro Adoption: Challenges for EU New Members," MPRA Paper 879, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Nature of Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 12729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Sébastien Wälti, 2005. "The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes," Trinity Economics Papers 2000518, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  9. Tambakis, D.N., 2007. "Fear of Floating and Social Welfare," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0726, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Ahmet Asici; Nadezhda Ivanova; Charles Wyplosz, 2005. "How to Exit From Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes?," IHEID Working Papers 03-2005, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  11. Monzur Hossain, 2008. "Currency Regime Choice: A Survey of Empirical Literature," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-11, American International University-Bangladesh, Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Apr 2008.
  12. Hossain, Monzur, 2011. "International monetary arrangements for the 21st century--Which way?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 47-63, June.
  13. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep8 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Juraj Antal & Jan Filáček & Jan Frait & Roman Horvath & Viktor Kotlán & Michal Skořepa, 2009. "Monetary Policy Strategies before Euro Adoption: The Art of Chasing Many Rabbits," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 176-198, July.

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