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Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes

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  • MASSON, Paul
  • RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.

Abstract

This paper studies the transition between exchange rate regimes using a Markov chain model with time-varying transition probabilities. The probabilities are parameterized as nonlinear functions of variables suggested by the currency crisis and optimal currency area literature. Results using annual data indicate that inflation, and to a lesser extent, output growth and trade openness help explain the exchange rate regime transition dynamics.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1866/510
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 2003-21.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:2003-21

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Keywords: Exchange rates; hollowing out hythesis; regime change; Markov chains; gs; floating;

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References

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  1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Kremer, Michael & Onatski, Alexei & Stock, James, 2001. "Searching for prosperity," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 275-303, December.
  4. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1999. "Prospective deficits and the asian currency crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2174, The World Bank.
  5. Masson,Paul R. & Taylor,Mark P. (ed.), 1993. "Policy Issues in the Operation of Currency Unions," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521434553.
  6. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Monzur Hossain, 2008. "Currency Regime Choice: A Survey of Empirical Literature," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-11, American International University-Bangladesh, Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Apr 2008.
  2. Sébastien Wälti, 2005. "The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes," Trinity Economics Papers 2000518, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  3. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 70-92, May.
  4. Graham Bird & Alex Mandilaras, 2014. "Transitions in Exchange Rate Regimes in the Aftermath of the Global Economic Crisis," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0614, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  5. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Benoit Coeuré, 2002. "The Survival of Intermediate Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Papers 2002-07, CEPII research center.
  6. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2010. "Parametric and non-parametric approaches to exits from fixed exchange rate regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 381-406.
  7. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep8 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Tambakis, D.N., 2007. "Fear of Floating and Social Welfare," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0726, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  9. Jan Filácek & Roman Horváth & Michal Skorepa, 2006. "Monetary Policy before Euro Adoption: Challenges for EU New Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp853, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  10. Sean Barrett, 2005. "Risk Equalisation and Competition in the Irish Health Insurance Market," Trinity Economics Papers 200058, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  11. Asici, Ahmet Atil & Ivanova, Nadezhda & Wyplosz, Charles, 2005. "How to Exit from Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 5141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Hossain, Monzur, 2011. "International monetary arrangements for the 21st century--Which way?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 47-63, June.
  13. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Nature of Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 12729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Bird, Graham & Rowlands, Dane, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing and Emerging Economies and the Incidence of IMF Programs," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1839-1848, December.
  15. Juraj Antal & Jan Filáček & Jan Frait & Roman Horvath & Viktor Kotlán & Michal Skořepa, 2009. "Monetary Policy Strategies before Euro Adoption: The Art of Chasing Many Rabbits," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 176-198, July.

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