Exchange Rate Regimes And Fiscal Performance. Do Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes Generate More Discipline Than Flexible Ones?
AbstractThis paper analyzes the influence of exchange rate regimes on fiscal performance, focusing on the difference between fixed and flexible exchange rates. For these ends, a sample of 83 countries for the 1974-1998 period, the GMM methodology for dynamic proposal panel models proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991) and diverse exchange rate classifications are used. In relation to the latter, this paper discusses recent regime classifications and proposes a new exchange rate classification that permits to cover possible inconsistencies between the commitment of the central bank and its observed behavior. The results suggest that the influence of regimes on fiscal performance depend on the international context, specifically the possibility of indebtedness and of the characteristics of the international finance system –integration, volatility and dominant financial structure-. In other words, it depends on credit availability as well as on the conditions or potential sanctioning of the finance system. It is found that in situations in which there is no original fiscal discipline and the authorities have the possibility of financing with debt of relatively low cost, fixed regimes do not purvey per se greater fiscal discipline than the flexible ones. On the contrary, flexible ones generate more discipline. In contexts with strong financing restrictions, the discipline’s effects of both regimes are not substantially different. While in situations with abundance of capitals but where they are highly integrated, they are volatile and possibly subject to contagion effect. The same functioning of the international finance system can, through their potential sanction, achieve greater discipline in economies with fixed regimes that wish to stay as such.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings with number 474.
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Phone: 1 212 998 3820
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/pastmeetings.asp
More information through EDIRC
exchange rate regimes; expenditure; revenues; deficits; international finance system; panel data; internal instruments; GMM;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 2000.
"Fixed versus flexible exchange rates: Which provides more fiscal discipline?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 399-436, April.
- Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andres, 1995. "Fixed Versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline," Working Papers 95-06, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1995. "Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates: Which Provides More Fiscal Discipline?," NBER Working Papers 5108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jonathan David Ostry & Anne Marie Gulde & Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1995.
"Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?,"
IMF Working Papers
95/121, International Monetary Fund.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," NBER Working Papers 5874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does The Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," Working Papers 97-09, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000.
"Fear of Floating,"
NBER Working Papers
7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aaron Tornell & Philip Lane, 1999. "Are Windfalls a Curse? A Non-Representative Agent Model of the Current Account and Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 4839, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1988.
"The advantage of tying one's hands : EMS discipline and Central Bank credibility,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1055-1075, June.
- Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1991. "The Advantage of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 303-330 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Giavazzi, Francesco & Pagano, Marco, 1986. "The Advantages of Tying One's Hands: EMS Discipline and Central Bank Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 135, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tamim Bayoumi, 1990. "Saving-Investment Correlations: Immobile Capital, Government Policy, or Endogenous Behavior?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 360-387, June.
- Roberto Chang, 1999. "Understanding recent crises in emerging markets," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 6-16.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998.
"Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime,"
NBER Working Papers
6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," Working Papers 98-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1997. "Financial fragility and the exchange rate regime," Working Paper 97-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Matthew T. Jones and Maurice Obstfeld., 1997.
"Saving, Investment, and Gold: A Reassessment of Historical Current Account Data,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
C97-094, University of California at Berkeley.
- Matthew T. Jones & Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Saving, Investment, and Gold: A Reassessment of Historical Current Account Data," NBER Working Papers 6103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven B. Kamin, 1988. "Devaluation, exchange controls, and black markets for foreign exchange in developing countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 334, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Alberto Alesina & Allan Drazen, 1989.
"Why are Stabilizations Delayed?,"
NBER Working Papers
3053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- C S Adam, D L Bevan and G Chambas, .
"Exchange Rate Regimes and Revenue Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
QEH Working Papers
qehwps35, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
- Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L. & Chambas, Gerard, 2001. "Exchange rate regimes and revenue performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 173-213, February.
- Christopher Adam & David Bevan, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Revenue Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Series Working Papers 9, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andres Velasco, 1997. "A Model of Endogenous Fiscal Deficits and Delayed Fiscal Reforms," NBER Working Papers 6336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guillermo Calvo & Carlos A. VÃ©gh Gramont, 1991. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Under Imperfect Credibility - G. A. Calvo and C. A. Vegh," IMF Working Papers 91/77, International Monetary Fund.
- Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000.
"Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
- Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
- Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina, 2000. "Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Regimes: a Case for Currency Boards?," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0006, Banco de Espa�a.
- Laura Alfaro, 1999. "Why governments implement Temporary Stabilization Programs," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 211-245, November.
- Andres Velasco, 1996. "When Are Fixed Exchange Rates Really Fixed?," NBER Working Papers 5842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995.
"The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ahn, Seung C. & Schmidt, Peter, 1995. "Efficient estimation of models for dynamic panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 5-27, July.
- Paul R. Masson & Morris Goldstein & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1991. "Characteristics of a Successful Exchange Rate System," IMF Occasional Papers 82, International Monetary Fund.
- Ernesto Talvi & Carlos A. Vegh, 2000. "Tax Base Variability and Procyclical Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 7499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Qinglai Meng & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Can Capital Mobility be Destabilizing?," NBER Working Papers 7263, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
- Karim Nashashibi & Stefania Bazzoni, 1994. "Exchange Rate Strategies and Fiscal Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(1), pages 76-122, March.
- Peter Montiel & Bijan B. Aghevli & Mohsin S. Khan, 1991. "Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries: Some Analytical Issues," IMF Occasional Papers 78, International Monetary Fund.
- Collins, Susan M., 1996. "On becoming more flexible: Exchange rate regimes in Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 117-138, October.
- Alberola, Enrique & Molina, Luis & Navia, Daniel, 2007. "Say you fix, enjoy and relax. The deleterious effect of peg announcements on fiscal discipline in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 328-338, December.
- Liliana Schumacher & Jiro Honda, 2006. "Adopting Full Dollarization in Postconflict Economies: Would the Gains Compensate for the Losses in Liberia?," IMF Working Papers 06/82, International Monetary Fund.
- Claude Bismut & Darine Ghanem, 2009. "This paper investigates empirically the reasons behind the popularity of fixed adjustable pegs in the Middle East North Africa region (MENA). We have used an ordered multinomial random effects probit ," Working Papers 09-10, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Sep 2009.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.