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Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes

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  • MASSON, Paul
  • RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.

Abstract

This paper studies the transition between exchange rate regimes using a Markov chain model with time-varying transition probabilities. The probabilities are parameterized as nonlinear functions of variables suggested by the currency crisis and optimal currency area literature. Results using annual data indicate that inflation, and to a lesser extent, output growth and trade openness help explain the exchange rate regime transition dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • MASSON, Paul & RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J., 2003. "Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes," Cahiers de recherche 15-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:15-2003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hossain, Monzur, 2011. "International monetary arrangements for the 21st century--Which way?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 47-63, June.
    2. Rose, Andrew K., 2014. "Surprising similarities: Recent monetary regimes of small economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 5-27.
    3. A. Bénassy-Quéré & B. Cœuré, 2002. "The Survival of Intermediate Exchange rate Regimes," THEMA Working Papers 2002-11, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    4. Menna Bizuneh, 2022. "Are We Floating Yet? Duration of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 63-89, January.
    5. Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2006. "The Nature of Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 12729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ahmet Atil Asici, 2010. "Parametric and non-parametric approaches to exits from fixed exchange rate regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 381-406.
    7. Ahmet Atil Asici & Nadezhda Ivanova & Charles Wyplosz, 2008. "How to exit from fixed exchange rate regimes?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 219-246.
    8. Juraj Antal & Jan Filáček & Jan Frait & Roman Horvath & Viktor Kotlán & Michal Skořepa, 2009. "Monetary Policy Strategies before Euro Adoption: The Art of Chasing Many Rabbits," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 176-198, July.
    9. S bastien W lti, 2005. "The duration of fixed exchange rate regimes," Trinity Economics Papers 2000518, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    10. Demosthenes N. Tambakis, 2007. "Fear of Floating and Social Welfare," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 183-204, September.
    11. Luzie Thiel, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Inequality: A Two-way Relation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202304, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. Bird, Graham & Rowlands, Dane, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing and Emerging Economies and the Incidence of IMF Programs," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1839-1848, December.
    13. Graham Bird & Alex Mandilaras, 2015. "Transitions in exchange rate regimes in the aftermath of the global economic crisis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(7), pages 567-571, May.
    14. Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Qing He & Wing Hong Chan, 2016. "From Fixed to Float: A Competing Risks Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 488-503, October.
    15. Michael Bleaney & Manuela Francisco, 2008. "Balance sheet effects and the choice of exchange rate regime in developing countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 297-310.
    16. Monzur Hossain, 2008. "Currency Regime Choice: A Survey of Empirical Literature," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-11, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB), Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Apr 2008.
    17. Filacek, Jan & Horvath, Roman & Skorepa, Michal, 2006. "Monetary Policy before Euro Adoption: Challenges for EU New Members," MPRA Paper 879, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2006. "How Central and Eastern European Countries Choose Exchange Rate Regimes," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 69-84.
    19. repec:tcd:wpaper:tep8 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The dynamics of exchange rate regimes: Fixes, floats, and flips," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 70-92, May.
    21. Sean Barrett, 2005. "Risk Equalisation and Competition in the Irish Health Insurance Market," Trinity Economics Papers 200058, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; hollowing out hypothesis; regime change; Markov chains; pegs; floating;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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