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Monetary Policy before Euro Adoption: Challenges for EU New Members

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Author Info
Jan Filácek ()
Roman Horváth ()
Michal Skorepa ()

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Abstract

This article analyzes the main issues for monetary policy in new EU member states before their euro adoption. These are typically rooted in the challenge of fulfilling concurrently of the Maastricht inflation and exchange rate criterion, as these countries are experiencing equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation. In this article we first distinguish between the wording, written interpretation and “revealed” interpretation of the inflation and exchange rate criteria. Then we discuss the options for monetary policy in the period of fulfilment of these criteria in terms of its transparency, its continuity with the previous monetary policy regime, the choice of central parity for the ERM II, the setting of the fluctuation bandwidth, the probability of fulfilment of both criteria and the impact on economic stability.

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Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp853.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2006-853

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Related research
Keywords: monetary policy; euro adoption; ERM II; EU;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. BALÁZS ÉGERT & RAFAñ KIERZENKOWSKI & RAFAñ KIERZENKOWSKI & RAFAñ KIERZENKOWSKI, 2005. "Asymmetric Fluctuation Bands in the ERM and ERM II : Lessons and Challenges for New EU Member States of Central and Eastern Europe," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(1), pages 82-115, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Balázs Égert, & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp793, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Paul Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2005. "Nominal Versus Real Convergence - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(4), pages 537-555, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Buiter, Willem H, 2004. "To Purgatory and Beyond: When and How Should the Accession Countries from Central and Eastern Europe Become Full Members of EMU?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4342, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Central Bank Transparency Go Too Far?," NBER Working Papers 10829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608.
  8. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Jazbec, Bostjan & Masten, Igor, 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through in EMU acceding countries: Empirical analysis and policy implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1375-1391, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Wojcik, Cezary, 2006. "Measuring monetary independence: Evidence from a group of new EU member countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 24-43, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Buiter, Willem H & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Anchor, Float or Abandon Ship: Exchange Rate Regimes for Accession Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 3184, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Hochreiter, Eduard & Tavlas, George S., 2004. "On the road again: an essay on the optimal path to EMU for the new member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 793-816, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Flad & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Economic and monetary integration of the new Member States - helping to chart the route," Occasional Paper Series 36, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gyula Barabás (ed.) & Csaba Balogh & Tamás Czeti & Szilárd Erhart & Zsolt Érsek & András Kármán & Gergely Kóczán & Róbert Rékási, 2003. "Coping with the speculative attack against the forint's band," MNB Background Studies (discontinued) 2003/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  14. Alain Borghijs & Louis Kuijs, 2004. "Exchange Rates in Central Europe: a Blessing or a Curse?," IMF Working Papers 04/2, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. Fabrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Exchange rate policy during transition to the European Monetary Union: The option of euroization," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 405-417, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Paul Masson & Francisco J. Ruge-Murcia, 2005. "Explaining the Transition between Exchange Rate Regimes," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 107(2), pages 261-278, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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