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De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies

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  • von Hagen, Jürgen
  • Zhou, Jizhong

Abstract

This paper provides an empirical investigation on the discrepancies between official exchange rate regimes and de facto exchange rate policies in transition economies. Since official and de facto regime choices are not independent of each other, we adopt a bivariate probit model to describe the joint determination of the two regime choices. After finding the important determinants of both regime choices, we use a univariate probit model to describe the determination of regime discrepancies. We find that errors in the selection of official regimes as well as the macroeconomic developments calling for conflicting adjustments in exchange rate regimes are important determinants of regime discrepancies. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 13-2002.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b132002

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  1. Masson, Paul R., 2001. "Exchange rate regime transitions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 571-586, April.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Jonathan David Ostry & Anne Marie Gulde & Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1995. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 95/121, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Fratianni, Michele & von Hagen, Juergen, 1990. "The European Monetary System ten years after," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 173-241, January.
  6. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2002. "The choice of exchange rate regimes: An empirical analysis for transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 03-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  7. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
  8. Holden, Paul & Holden, Merle & Suss, Esther C, 1979. "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 327-33, August.
  9. Maurice Obstfeld, 1994. "The Logic of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 4640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2002. "De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 13-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  11. Richard A. Meese & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Exchange rate instability: determinants and predictability," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 183-205.
  12. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Living with the Fear of Floating: An Optimal Policy Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 663-704 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
  14. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Staff Studies 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Melvin, Michael, 1985. "The Choice of an Exchange Rate System and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 467-78, November.
  16. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Hélène Poirson, 2001. "How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?," IMF Working Papers 01/46, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin & Carmen Pagés-Serra & Ernesto H. Stein, 1999. "Financial Turmoil and Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Research Department Publications 4170, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  19. repec:fth:inadeb:418 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Helge Berger & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 263, CESifo Group Munich.
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