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Fear of Floating and Fear of Pegging: An Empirical Analysis of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing Countries

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  • von Hagen, Jürgen
  • Zhou, Jizhong

Abstract

This paper uses a panel probit model with simultaneous equations to explain the joint determination of de facto and de jure exchange rate regimes in developing countries since 1980. We also derive an ordered-choice panel probit model to explain the causes of discrepancies between the two regime choices. Both models are estimated using simulation-based maximum likelihood methods. The results of the simultaneous equations model suggest that the two regime choices are dependent of each other and exhibit considerable state dependence. The ordered probit model provides evidence that regime discrepancies reflect an error-correction mechanism, and the discrepancies are persistent over time.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5530.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5530

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Keywords: de facto exchange rate regimes; developing countries; simulated maximum likelihood; simultaneous equations model;

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References

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  1. Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2, January.
  2. James J. Heckman, 1977. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," NBER Working Papers 0177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  4. Holden, Paul & Holden, Merle & Suss, Esther C, 1979. "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 327-33, August.
  5. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2002. "De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 13-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2002. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes: An Empirical Analysis for Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Jonathan David Ostry & Anne Marie Gulde & Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1995. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 95/121, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
  10. Masson, Paul R., 2001. "Exchange rate regime transitions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 571-586, April.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  12. Hélène Poirson, 2001. "How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?," IMF Working Papers 01/46, International Monetary Fund.
  13. repec:fth:inadeb:418 is not listed on IDEAS
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jurgen Von Hagen & Jizhong Zhou, 2008. "The interaction between capital controls and exchange rate regimes: evidence from developing countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 163-185.
  2. Hans Keiding & Mette J. Knudsen, 2005. "Rational Fear of Floating: A Simple Model of Exchange Rates and Income Distribution," Discussion Papers 05-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2007. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A multinomial panel analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1071-1094, November.

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