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Fear of Floating and Fear of Pegging: An Empirical Analysis of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing Countries

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  • von Hagen, Jürgen
  • Zhou, Jizhong

Abstract

This paper uses a panel probit model with simultaneous equations to explain the joint determination of de facto and de jure exchange rate regimes in developing countries since 1980. We also derive an ordered-choice panel probit model to explain the causes of discrepancies between the two regime choices. Both models are estimated using simulation-based maximum likelihood methods. The results of the simultaneous equations model suggest that the two regime choices are dependent of each other and exhibit considerable state dependence. The ordered probit model provides evidence that regime discrepancies reflect an error-correction mechanism, and the discrepancies are persistent over time.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5530.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5530

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Keywords: de facto exchange rate regimes; developing countries; simulated maximum likelihood; simultaneous equations model;

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References

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2005. "De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 256-275, June.
  3. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2002. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes: An Empirical Analysis for Transition Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. repec:fth:inadeb:418 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555.
  6. Hélène Poirson, 2001. "How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?," IMF Working Papers 01/46, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Paul R. Masson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regime Transitions," IMF Working Papers 00/134, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Jonathan David Ostry & Anne Marie Gulde & Atish R. Ghosh & Holger C. Wolf, 1995. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," IMF Working Papers 95/121, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Heckman, James J, 1978. "Dummy Endogenous Variables in a Simultaneous Equation System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(4), pages 931-59, July.
  11. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," Research Department Publications 4205, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  12. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2004. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Developing Countries: A Multinational Panel Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Holden, Paul & Holden, Merle & Suss, Esther C, 1979. "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 327-33, August.
  14. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2007. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A multinomial panel analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1071-1094, November.
  2. Jurgen Von Hagen & Jizhong Zhou, 2008. "The interaction between capital controls and exchange rate regimes: evidence from developing countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 163-185.
  3. Hans Keiding & Mette J. Knudsen, 2005. "Rational Fear of Floating: A Simple Model of Exchange Rates and Income Distribution," Discussion Papers 05-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.

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