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Rational Fear of Floating: A Simple Model of Exchange Rates and Income Distribution

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Author Info
Hans Keiding (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)
Mette J. Knudsen (Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen)
Abstract

We consider a simple two-country model, where each country produces a consumption good from a single input. Production takes time, and the model is considered over two consecutive periods. There are three categories of economic agents, namely factor owners, entrepreneurs, and financial intermediaries. The latter offers credits to entrepreneurs and are funded by sale internationally transferable bonds. We assume that the national credit markets are monopolistic but that other markets are competitive. Exchange rate policy is introduced in two different ways, either as a market intervention by a government, sustained by intervention in the commodity market, and, more realistically, as a policy commitment by the monetary authorities, which in equilibrium is taken into consideration by the financial intermediary. The results of the simple model show that an increase in the value of the domestic currency from an equilibrium position will in most cases decrease aggregate welfare of the country, but it will improve welfare of the financial intermediaries. Thus, in the simple framework of our model, a specific sector – and one with a considerable influence on policy choices – stands to gain from this exchange rate policy.

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Paper provided by University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 05-03.

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Length: 14 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0503

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Related research
Keywords: fear of floating income distribution financial intermediaries

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Sims, Christopher A, 2001. "Fiscal Consequences for Mexico of Adopting the Dollar," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 597-616, May.
    Other versions:
  2. Panizza, U. & Stein, E.H. & Hausmann, R., 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," RES Working Papers 418, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    Other versions:
  3. Honig, Adam, 2005. "Fear of floating and domestic liability dollarization," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 289-307, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2006. "Fear of Floating and Fear of Pegging: An Empirical Analysis of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Andrew Powell & Alain Ize, 2004. "Prudential Responses to De Facto Dollarization," IMF Working Papers 04/66, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Alberto Alesina & Alexander Wagner, 2003. "Choosing (And Reneging On) Exchange Rate Regimes," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2008, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Francisco Gallego & Geraint Jones, 2005. "Exchange Rate Interventions and Insurance: Is “Fear of Floating” a Cause For Concern?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 326, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  9. Eduardo J.J. Ganapolsky, 2003. "Optimal fear of floating: the role of currency mismatches and fiscal constraints," Working Paper 2003-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  10. Amartya Lahiri & Carlos A. Vegh, 2001. "Living with the Fear of Floating: An Optimal Policy Perspective," NBER Working Papers 8391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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