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The Interaction Between Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from Developing Countries

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  • von Hagen, Jürgen
  • Zhou, Jizhong

Abstract

The choice of the exchange rate regime and the capital account regime are among the core macro economic policy decisions for developing countries, with important repercussions for a country's macro economic stability, ability to attract foreign capital, and international trade. Existing literature has considered the determinants of these decisions, taking the capital account regime as given when considering the exchange rate regime and vice versa. This paper provides an empirical analysis of the interaction between the two regime choices treating both as simultaneously endogenous. Using a panel data set for developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s, we estimate a simultaneous-equations panel mixed logit model for the joint determination of both choices. We find strong influences from the official, de jure exchange rate regime on capital account policies, but only weak feedback effects. Using de-facto exchange rate regimes, the influences in both directions are similar to each other.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5537.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5537

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Keywords: capital controls; exchange rate regimes; panel mixed logit model; simultaneous equations model;

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  1. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2003. "The determination of capital controls: Which role do exchange rate regimes play?," ZEI Working Papers B 08-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  3. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2006. "Fear of Floating and Fear of Pegging: An Empirical Analysis of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, April.
  5. Razin, Assaf & Sadka, Efraim, 1991. "Efficient investment incentives in the presence of capital flight," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 171-181, August.
  6. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2004. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Developing Countries: A Multinational Panel Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Alesina, Alberto F & Grilli, Vittorio & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers 793, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  9. John Williamson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Reviving the Intermediate Option," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa60.
  10. Michael P. Dooley, 1996. "A Survey of Literature on Controls over International Capital Transactions," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 639-687, December.
  11. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, December.
  12. Bai, Chong-en & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "The quality of bureaucracy and capital account policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2575, The World Bank.
  13. Natalia T. Tamirisa & R. B. Johnston, 1998. "Why Do Countries Use Capital Controls?," IMF Working Papers 98/181, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "The Determinants of the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange-Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 5756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Helge Berger & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2001. "Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Regimes: An Empirical Investigation," CESifo Working Paper Series 433, CESifo Group Munich.
  16. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," NBER Working Papers 5874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  18. Paolo Mauro & Grace Juhn, 2002. "Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate Regimes," IMF Working Papers 02/104, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Vittorio Grilli & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 1995. "Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls," IMF Working Papers 95/31, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  21. repec:rus:hseeco:181565 is not listed on IDEAS
  22. Bernhard, William & Leblang, David, 1999. "Democratic Institutions and Exchange-rate Commitments," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(01), pages 71-97, December.
  23. Jacques Miniane, 2004. "A New Set of Measures on Capital Account Restrictions," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(2), pages 4.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Demosthenes N. Tambakis, 2007. "Fear of Floating and Social Welfare," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 183-204, September.
  2. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger & Iliana Reggio, 2009. "On the endogeneity of exchange rate regimes," Economics Working Papers we098374, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  3. Kimakova, Alena, 2008. "The political economy of exchange rate regime determination: Theory and evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 354-371, December.

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