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The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Developing Countries: A Multinational Panel Analysis

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  • von Hagen, Jürgen
  • Zhou, Jizhong

Abstract

This Paper analyses the choices of exchange rate regimes in developing countries since 1980. Static and dynamic random-effects multinomial panel models are estimated using simulation-based techniques. Explanatory variables include OCA fundamentals, stabilization considerations, currency crises factors, and political and institutional features. The results reveal strong state dependence in regime choices.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4227.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4227

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Keywords: developing countries; exchange rate regimes; multinomial logit model; simulation; static and dynamic panel;

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References

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  1. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2002. "De facto and official exchange rate regimes in transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 13-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  2. Holden, Paul & Holden, Merle & Suss, Esther C, 1979. "The Determinants of Exchange Rate Flexibility: An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(3), pages 327-33, August.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  4. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry & Holger C. Wolf, 1997. "Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?," NBER Working Papers 5874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
  6. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2002. "The choice of exchange rate regimes: An empirical analysis for transition economies," ZEI Working Papers B 03-2002, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  7. Savvides, Andreas, 1990. "Real exchange rate variability and the choice of exchange rate regime by developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 440-454, December.
  8. Pierre-Guillaume Méon & Jean-Marc Rizzo, 2002. "The viability of fixed exchange rate commitments: does politics matter? A theoretical and empirical investigation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8392, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  9. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387.
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  15. Rizzo, Jean-Marc, 1998. "The economic determinants of the choice of an exchange rate regime: a probit analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 283-287, June.
  16. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel L. McFadden, 1998. "The Method of Simulated Scores for the Estimation of LDV Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 863-896, July.
  17. Melvin, Michael, 1985. "The Choice of an Exchange Rate System and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 467-78, November.
  18. Dreyer, Jacob S., 1978. "Determinants of exchange-rate regimes for currencies of developing countries: Some preliminary results," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 437-445, April.
  19. Hélène Poirson, 2001. "How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?," IMF Working Papers 01/46, International Monetary Fund.
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  21. Heller, H Robert, 1978. "Determinants of Exchange Rate Practices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 308-21, August.
  22. Bernhard, William & Leblang, David, 1999. "Democratic Institutions and Exchange-rate Commitments," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(01), pages 71-97, December.
  23. Fratianni, Michele & von Hagen, Juergen, 1990. "The European Monetary System ten years after," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 173-241, January.
  24. Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, December.
  25. Boyer, Russell S, 1978. "Optimal Foreign Exchange Market Intervention," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 1045-55, December.
  26. Honkapohja, Seppo & Pikkarainen, Pentti, 1992. "Country Characteristics and the Choice of the Exchange Rate Regime: Are Mini-skirts Followed by Maxis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Keane, Michael P, 1994. "A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimator for Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 95-116, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Sebastian Kube & Jürgen von Hagen, 2006. "Experimental Evidence on the Benefits of Eliminating Exchange Rate Uncertainties and Why Expected Utility Theory causes Economists to Miss Them," Labsi Experimental Economics Laboratory University of Siena 010, University of Siena.
  2. Jurgen Von Hagen & Jizhong Zhou, 2008. "The interaction between capital controls and exchange rate regimes: evidence from developing countries," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 163-185.
  3. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2006. "Fear of Floating and Fear of Pegging: An Empirical Analysis of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes in Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Coudert, Virginie & Dubert, Marc, 2005. "Does exchange rate regime explain differences in economic results for Asian countries?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 874-895, October.

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