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The Viability of Fixed Exchange Rate Commitments: Does Politics Matter? A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation

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  • Pierre-Guillaume Méon

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  • Jean-Marc Rizzo

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    Abstract

    This article studies the connection between political instability and the sustainability of an exchange rate regime. A model based on the credibility of monetary policy shows that political unrest should be correlated with the adoption of flexible exchange rates. That intuition is tested using various measures of political instability on a panel of 125 countries between 1980 and 1994. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2002

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1013916013825
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

    Volume (Year): 13 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 111-132

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    Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:13:y:2002:i:2:p:111-132

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    Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100323

    Related research

    Keywords: exchange rate regimes; political uncertainty; credibility;

    References

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    1. L. J. Ruland & J.-M. Viaene, 1993. "The Political Choice Of The Exchange Rate Regime," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 271-284, November.
    2. Torben Andersen, 1998. "Shocks and the Viability of a Fixed Exchange Rate Commitment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 139-156, April.
    3. Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb, 1995. "Political Stabilization Cycles in High Inflation Economies," IDB Publications 6857, Inter-American Development Bank.
    4. Melvin, Michael, 1985. "The Choice of an Exchange Rate System and Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 467-78, November.
    5. Edwards, Sebastian, 1996. "Exchange Rates and the Political Economy of Macroeconomic Discipline," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 159-63, May.
    6. Assaf Razin & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 96/110, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
    9. Sebastian Edwards & Julio Santaella, 1993. "Devaluation Controversies in the Developing Countries: Lessons from the Bretton Woods Era," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 405-460 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Frieden, Jeffry A., 1991. "Invested interests: the politics of national economic policies in a world of global finance," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(04), pages 425-451, September.
    11. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August.
    13. Susan M. Collins & Francesco Giavazzi, 1993. "Attitudes toward Inflation and the Viability of Fixed Exchange Rates: Evidence from the EMS," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 547-586 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Gulcin Ozkan & Alan Sutherland, . "A Currency Crisis Model with an Optimising Policymaker," Discussion Papers 96/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
    15. Honkapohja, Seppo & Pikkarainen, Pentti, 1992. "Country Characteristics and the Choice of the Exchange Rate Regime: Are Mini-skirts Followed by Maxis?," CEPR Discussion Papers 744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Susanne Lohmann, 1998. "Rationalizing the Political Business Cycle: A Workhorse Model," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, 03.
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    Cited by:
    1. Fabrizio Carmignani & Emilio Colombo & Patrizio Tirelli, 2004. "Consistency versus credibility: how do countries choose their exchange rate regime?," Working Papers 85, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2005.
    2. von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2007. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A multinomial panel analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1071-1094, November.
    3. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2004. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A mulitnominal panal analysis," ZEI Working Papers B 32-2004, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
    4. Harms, Philipp & Hoffmann, Mathias, 2009. "Deciding to peg the exchange rate in developing countries: the role of private-sector debt," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    5. Kato, Isamu & Uctum, Merih, 2008. "Choice of exchange rate regime and currency zones," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 436-456.
    6. von Hagen, Jürgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2004. "The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime in Developing Countries: A Multinational Panel Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4227, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Carmignani, Fabrizio & Colombo, Emilio & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2008. "Exploring different views of exchange rate regime choice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1177-1197, November.
    8. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    9. Hiro Ito & Masahiro Kawai, 2014. "Determinants of the Trilemma Policy Combination," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23967, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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